Monday League One and League Two Tips: Good Evans with a Rovers win in 35/1 treble | OneFootball

The festive action in the EFL rolls on with Monday's full fixture list previewed

Alan Dudman looks ahead to Monday's action in League One and League Two and has high hopes for a treble at 11/2 and a more speculative 35/1 acca...

League One

Bradford City v Port Vale, Monday 19:45: Back Bradford @ 4/5

The Bantams let me down at an inconsistent Orient recently but did bounce back for a Boxing Day success against Wigan at home, and they've drawn the luck here with another home game over Christmas.

Port Vale meanwhile suffered a worse fate in losing 5-0 at Huddersfield. Truly a mauling at the Terriers if ever there was one. Vale's season has been a real struggle and against a Bradford team that win plenty and concede few at home, I'd have them a lot shorter than the 4/5 on offer.

One more loss for Vale could mean time's up for Darren Moore, and this is not an easy to game to face off the back of a drubbing.

With victory here, Bradford City would have beaten Port Vale 43 times in the Football League, which would be their joint-most ever victories against any team alongside Chesterfield, Crewe Alexandra and Rochdale.

Cardiff City v Stevenage, Monday 19:45: Back Cardiff @ 4/5

Cardiff are often a wee bit short in the betting for my liking but now could be a good time to not only play Stevenage, but to take a shade of odds-on.

We're on for a short priced treble on the Sportsbook in the third tier and Cardiff impressive form at home has made for blissful watching at times.

The Bluebirds 1,0, 4-3, 3-2 and 3-0 in their last four matches at home, and they can also claim the scalp of the Hertfordshire side fairly recently in a 0-1 success thanks to a late Callum Robinson goal. In that game, and bear in mind Stevo were at home, they had the princely sum of zero shots on target and just 33% of the ball. The last team they did the double over at the first time of asking was Oxford United in 1968-69.

Bolton Wanderers v Mansfield Town, Monday 19:45: Back Bolton and Over 1.5 Goals @ 8/11

Bolton have lost just one of their last 10 final league games of a calendar year (W5 D4), conceding multiple goals in just one of those matches, so it's a fairly obvious line to take with the win and goals.

Okay, the 8/11 isn't exactly Great Gatsby style bets, but I am finding it increasingly difficult to back Mansfield.

Nigel Clough's team gained a much-needed boost on Boxing Day with a shock 2-3 win at Barnsley, but they had been in wretched form prior and I would be surprised if this team backs it up.

Bolton can boast the best home defence in the division with just six conceded in 11 games (scoring 22). Stephen Schumacher's side usually dominate the ball in terms of possession stats, and they also possess the best xG in League One all told at 1.88.

League Two

Salford v Fleetwood Town, Monday 19:45: Back BTTS first half @ 14/5

The rate Salford are going, promotion could well and truly be on the cards for Karl Robinson's attack-minded team.

Perched in fifth spot, they are in a brilliant run of three successive wins and are hot on the tails of Robbo's old club MK Dons, and their seven home wins could become eight.

While the back of the hosts is a potential bet, I prefer the BTTS, and we've had a fair bit of joy going first half with this bet in recent times as Fleetwood's xA on the road is a worrying 1.70, which masks perhaps the 13 conceded in 11 away.

I like Salford's approach to games and they've scored in each of their last five. We've got a decent 14/5 for both to score in the first 45 minutes.

Bristol Rovers v Barnet, Monday 19:45: Back Bristol Rovers to win and Over 1.5 Goals @ 7/2

Barnet are turning into the biggest disappointment of the season for me. A side that promised plenty at one stage but they couldn't even score past a wretched Newport on Boxing Day in a 0-0 and Dean Brennan's team are under-achieving.

Steve Evans, the new man at the helm at the Gas, will have his team talk sorted as they were absolutely dreadful under Darrell Clarke when losing to Barnet at the Hive 4-0, a performance a Barnet fan I know, said it was one of the worst teams he had ever seen (Rovers).

Evans, a tough talker to point it kindly, must have gleaned a ton of positives from the Boxing Day 2-3 loss to form side Bromley. Rovers played half the game with 10 men, and conceded on 81 and 90 minutes. Previously they drew 1-1 against Crewe, and I's suggest both teams are stronger than Barnet.

They were outstanding for 53 minutes on Boxing Day and it's good to have Evans back and he has history on his side too as Rovers have won five of their six home Football League games against Barnet (L1), losing the other 2-0 in 2011-12.

Walsall v Oldham Athletic, Monday 19:45: Back Walsall @ 11/10

Walsall have won each of their last three league games against Oldham Athletic, only ever enjoying a longer winning run in this fixture between 1958 and 1960 (four wins), and I am surprised they are not shorter or even odds-against for Monday.

The 11/10 continues the theme this term of Walsall overpriced with layers perhaps sensing a slip-up on the horizon.

That hasn't happened and they remain top with seven home wins and a fairly tight defence - indeed the xA of 1.19 at home is their best metric and could be the elemental driver for this bet.

Oldham have scored just nine in 12 away games and have drawn a blank in five road matches, and without goals, you cannot win a war with pineapples as the old saying goes and they have won just one of their last 10 final league games of a calendar year (D4 L5), though that sole victory came in a 4-1 away win over Port Vale in 2018.

Now read Jack Critchley's Championship tipsheet here.

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