Napoli v Chelsea: Great Scott to strike | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Chelsea face their old boss Antonio Conte on Wednesday night

Chelsea come up against a familiar face on Wednesday night, but with Napoli probably needing a win to survive, Antonio Conte won't do his old club any favours.

Napoli v ChelseaWednesday 28 January, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

Season unravelling for frustrated Conte

It's been a sobering few days for Italian champions Napoli. Their struggles in the Champions League continued as they led 1-0 at a limited Copenhagen, only to surrender that advantage against ten men. The game ended 1-1, and coach Antonio Conte commented that his team had "messed up a game they were in control of."

To make matters worse, Napoli were then demolished 3-0 at Conte's former club Juventus. There was controversy over the referee's decision not to award Napoli a penalty when centre-back Bremer clearly impeded striker Rasmus Hojlund, but Juventus moved through the gears to secure a deserved victory.

Napoli are now nine points adrift of the leaders Inter, and in the Champions League they are 25th in the standings, just outside the playoff places. Failure to progress to the knockout stage would be an embarrassment and a financial blow for a reigning Italian champion, and it would further reinforce the idea that Conte simply cannot balance domestic duties with continental competition. After all, Napoli weren't in Europe when he led them to the Scudetto last season.

On home soil Napoli have delivered in the UCL, beating Sporting and Qarabag and drawing 0-0 with Eintracht Frankfurt. In Serie A at the Maradona, the Partenopei are unbeaten, with seven wins and three draws on the slate.

Romelu Lukaku made his long-awaited return from injury at the weekend, but he will be eased back into action gently, so expect on-loan Manchester United striker Hojlund to start again. Napoli are suffering something of an injury plague, with Kevin de Bruyne, Andre-Frank Zambo-Anguissa, Matteo Politano, David Neres, Billy Gilmour and Amir Rrahmani all out.

So far, so good for Rosenior revolution

While there is distrust among some Chelsea fans about the merits of a young and inexperienced coach at the helm, Liam Rosenior has won three of his four competitive matches. A sparky performance in a 3-2 defeat to Arsenal kept Chelsea alive in their League Cup semi-final tie, and there have since been wins over Brentford, Pafos and Crystal Palace.

Rosenior has played a 4-2-3-1 formation throughout, but he has been happy to shuffle his pack as he looks to find the right combinations. At Chelsea's servant club Strasbourg (sister club suggests it's an even-handed relationship, which it isn't), Rosenior developed a reputation for developing young players, and his work with Brazilian winger Estevao could prove crucial.

Estevao was already a success when he arrived at Stamford Bridge, having won a league title with Palmeiras. At the age of 18, the winger already has 11 caps for Brazil, and has scored five goals, an astonishing strike rate for a player with so little experience. His magnificent solo goal at Crystal Palace at the weekend underlined his talent, as he raced away from the Eagles' defence before firing a fierce drive past Dean Henderson for the game's opening goal.

Chelsea are currently in the top eight of the Champions League, but they know that a draw is unlikely to keep them there, with five clubs below them on goal difference. Their performances away from home in the Champions League have been largely disappointing, with defeats at Bayern and Atalanta and a draw at Qarabag.

Cole Palmer missed the win at Palace with a thigh injury, and it remains to be seen whether he will return here. Centre-back Tosin is out.

McTominay can't be ignored

Throughout his time at Napoli, Scott McTominay has delivered big goals when he's been called upon, and at 11/4 I can't ignore him here in the Anytime Goalscorer market. The Scotland international scored some vital goals in the title run-in last term, and he has netted four goals in his last six appearances. The bigger the occasion, the bigger his impact, and he recently scored twice in a 2-2 draw at title rivals Inter.

Chelsea won't run away with it at the Maradona

Both teams have to go for the win here, and if we get an early goal we could be in for an exciting clash. All three of Chelsea's away games in this competition have featured three goals or more, and eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.

Napoli are generally more circumspect, but they almost certainly need to win this game to survive in the competition. I'll back Over 2.5 Goals and give Napoli a two-goal headstart on the Handicap, so even if they are caught out pushing for the win and lose by the odd goal, we are still covered. That gives us a combined price of 11/10 on the Bet Builder.

Recommended bets

Back Napoli +2 Handicap and Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

Back Scott McTominay to score @ 11/4

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