Newcastle United Champions League qualification? Goalposts getting moved in right direction | OneFootball

Newcastle United fans got a taste of Champions League football last season.

Having finished fourth in the 2022/23 Premier League, they were one of four English teams competing, alongside Man City, Arsenal and Man U.

Drawn out of the fourth pot and into the proverbial ‘Group of Death’, Newcastle United were only minutes away from qualifying for the Champions League knockout stages.

Having been cheated out of all but ensuring their knockout spot by that outrageous late penalty decision in Paris in match five of six, Newcastle United were still on course when taking the lead against AC Milan in the sixth and final group match.

However, somehow Miggy Almiron failed to convert a chance that was only inches from the line, a defender clearing. Then at 1-1, a world class save somehow denied a 2-1 United lead that would have given Champions League progress to the last 16. Instead, as Eddie Howe’s side threw everything at the winner, a sucker punch on the break saw AC Milan get an undeserved winner.

Such is life.

When it came to the Premier League delivering another Champions League spot for Newcastle United, that looked a real possibility as we got to December 2023.

A dominant win at St James’ Park with Man U somehow escaping with just a 1-0 defeat, left Newcastle United in fifth place on 2 December 2023. However, the club’s worst ever season in their history for injuries just eventually became far too much.

A miracle really that Eddie Howe still managed to take Newcastle United to within just eight points of top four and automatic Champions League qualification. Instead, it was Liverpool and Villa joining Man City and Arsenal for the 2024/25 Champions League adventure.

Tottenham were the ‘unlucky’ ones, they finished fifth in the Premier League last season but didn’t get Champions League.

Bologna from Italy and Dortmund from Germany both earned Champions League places for the 2024/25 season via the new European Performance Spots, these giving two European leagues each an extra place in the Champions League, based on how each country’s teams did collectively the previous season.

This is how it played out on that front in the 2023/24 domestic leagues

So what about for this 2024/25 domestic season, the Premier League and other European domestic leagues.

Well UEFA confirmed (see below) that even though the Champions League format (and those of the other two European competitions) are now in a Swiss League format now, where each club initially plays a number of teams, either home or away (not both), the key thing remains the same.

The two domestic leagues whose clubs collectively perform best in European competitions in the 2024/25 season, will then get an extra Champions League place for the 2025/26 CL competition.

UEFA official confirmation on two bonus places in 2025/26 Champions League – 12 June 2024:

‘These places will go to the associations with the best collective performance by their clubs in the previous season (i.e. the association club coefficient of the previous season, which is based on the total number of club coefficient points obtained by each club from an association divided by the number of participating clubs from that association).

Those two associations will each earn one automatic place in the league phase (‘European Performance Spot’) for the club ranked next-best in their domestic league behind those clubs that have already qualified directly for the league phase.’

The thing is, last season was a bit of a freak one, or at least fairly rare.

Before 2023/24, the previous six seasons would have seen the Premier League clubs be collectively amongst the best two leagues on five occasions when it came to European results. So if the bonus places had been in operation in those years, the Premier League would got an extra place in five of the six seasons. The likes of Liverpool (2022/23) and others suffering, having finished in fifth place those seasons.

So moving up to date.

Newcastle United Champions League qualification?

For me, the goalposts are getting moved in the right direction.

Probably due to last season’s fifth place failure for the Premier League, I haven’t really seen any mention of the possibility so far during this Premier League campaign.

Instead it is ‘Can Newcastle United (or insert other club) get Premier League top four and qualify for the Champions League?’

Even when including last season, the fact remains that five of the last seven seasons, English clubs in Europe would have seen a fifth Champions League spot delivered due to their collective performances. So on that basis, a 72% chance of the Premier League having been one of the two countries doing best.

When you then consider what has happened so far in this season’s European competitions…

Obviously it is early days but the last 48 hours have seen Premier League clubs deliver wins in all four games this week, nine goals scored and none conceded. Whilst across all three competitions and the seven English clubs, it is played 12, won 10, drawn 2, lost 0.

To be honest, I would be amazed if English clubs aren’t collectively one of the best two this season, so I very much see it as ‘Can Newcastle United (or insert other club) get Premier League top five and qualify for the Champions League?’

It might be only one extra potential place but I think it is massive for Newcastle United and a number of others, if indeed it ends up five and not four Premier League clubs getting a Champions League spot.

Many/most neutrals would say Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool are big favourites to fill three of the top four spots, which would leave one other Champions League space.

So if you went along with believing that trio are nailed on, then a fifth Champions League spot would effectively DOUBLE the chances for the rest!

Ahead of the season, I would say that the vast majority of football fans/neutrals would have the fight between:

Top three – Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool fighting it out.

Top four (or top five) – Chelsea, Newcastle United, Man U, Spurs and maybe Brighton, competing for the other one or two Champions League places.

Personally, if Newcastle United don’t finish ahead of Man U again, then I think that guarantees we will have had a pretty woeful season. Sir Jim Rat has overseen a process that to me looks like it has added fuel to the fire at Old Trafford, making an even bigger mess/bonfire, rather than dampening down the flames of disaster. A hopeless manager allowed to waste even more hundreds of millions on poor signings, yet more of them having played for Erik ten Hag in the past, as was the case with Antony and other disastrous signings.

I don’t see Brighton as having enough to finish top five either.

So in my opinion, if Newcastle United can play at a decent level consistently, they are competing with Chelsea and Spurs for the other one or two Champions League spots for next season.

Or even put it another way, Newcastle one of six clubs potentially competing for five Champions League spots.

Then even the possibility of Manchester City at last getting the kind of punishment they deserve, with relegation due to these 115 charges, or at least a massive points deduction for this season.

The bottom line for me is that of course Newcastle United have to find good form BUT I do think getting back into the Champions League is very much in our own hands.

As usual, the media are raving about Chelsea when they put together a few results. Yet already they failed to beat Palace at home and lost to Man City at Stamford Bridge. After spending over £1.5billion these past two years, then of course the sheer levels of spending may give them a high league placing. However, I think it will be interesting to wait until at least 12 or more matches before the media award them stellar status.

As for Tottenham, their three wins have been against really poor teams, including/especially Man U! They lost at home to Arsenal and away at Newcastle, plus could only draw at Leicester after having led.

The performance against Manchester City was a better guide to what Newcastle United are capable of, plus that was done without six players available, including Sven Botman and our two main strikers.

Wins in these next two games away to Everton and home to Brighton, are more than achievable if playing to the levels shown at St James’ Park on Saturday. That would give Eddie Howe and his players 17 points after eight Premier League games and a place in the top five, probably top four, as we move into late October.

As I say, you still of course have to do it on the pitch, but no reason why this season Newcastle United can’s deliver a Champions League qualifying spot.