Newcastle United results show on schedule for Premier League top four | OneFootball

Newcastle United have played 10 Premier League matches this season to date, winning four, drawing three and losing three.

Nothing spectacular but not a disaster either.

With 28 Premier League games to go, Newcastle United are statistically on course for 57 points, if continuing their 1.5 points per match average, a points total that would likely deliver 8th-10th.

Are we better off at this stage than last season?

With 15 points from these opening ten games, Newcastle United is two points worse off, as we had 17 points at the same stage in 2023/24.

That 1.7 points per game average, would statistically have given us 65 points if maintained, of course ultimately we ended up with 60 points.

What if I told you that by another measurement Newcastle United are currently three points better off compared to last season?  How you ask?

If you look at the same 10 fixtures.

Southampton were promoted last season to the Premier League but given they were the third promoted club, I’d class them as this season’s Luton Town, who NUFC drew with 4-4 at St James’ Park. This season it was a 1-0 home win with 10 men against the Saints, so two points better off in this fixture.

Newcastle United have beaten Spurs and Arsenal at home, same as last season.

We lost to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, as NUFC did last season.

The two home matches against Man City and Brighton produced a total of one point last season, same total as this time.

Away matches at Wolves, Everton, Fulham and Bournemouth produced four points, this time five.

So in total from the same 10 fixtures, Newcastle United are three points better off this season, an average of 0.3 points per match better off.

If we could sustain that extra per Premier League match, it would equal a grand total of 11.4 points on top of last season’s total of 60 points. So 71 points, the total which Newcastle United finished with in 2022/2023 to get fourth and Champions League football.

Could we do it again?

Time will tell.

The next 10 Premier League matches are:

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm)

Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm)

Saturday 30 November – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (3pm)

Wednesday 4 December – Newcastle v Liverpool (7.30pm)

Saturday 7 December – Brentford v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 14 December – Newcastle v Leicester (3pm)

Saturday 21 December – Ipswich v Newcastle (3pm)

Thursday 26 December – Newcastle v Villa (3pm)

Monday 30 December – Man U v Newcastle (8pm)

Saturday 4 January – Tottenham v Newcastle (12.30pm)

Leicester are Burnley and Ipswich are Sheffield United, by the logic used on Southampton/Luton.

Last season, Newcastle United lost in these same fixture to Liverpool, Palace, Man U and Spurs.

However, NUFC won the other six fixtureses (including Forest away, who we are up against on Sunday).

So last season we got a total of 18 points from these next ten Premier League fixtures.

To stay on course for Premier League top four (by improving our return per same fixture by 0.3 points per match), Newcastle United need 21 points from these next ten PL games.