Newcastle v Chelsea: Wounded Magpies can make Maresca miserable | OneFootball

Newcastle v ChelseaSaturday 20 December, 12:30

Newcastle with work to do to repair derby damage

Having waited since 2016 to see their team face Sunderland in a Premier League game, Newcastle fans will have been dismayed to see such a limp display in a 1-0 loss at the Stadium of Light last weekend. The Magpies lacked intensity and an attacking threat as they somewhat meekly fell to defeat in a game their fans would surely have thought about from the moment the Black Cats won promotion.

Skipper Bruno Guimaraes looked like a broken man in his post-match interview, calling his team's display "a mess" and describing himself as "embarrassed and frustrated". Manager Eddie Howe has since sought to play down those comments, and Wednesday's dramatic 2-1 League Cup quarter-final win against Fulham will have at least salved some of those wounds. Terrific teen Lewis Miley won it with a stoppage-time header, and Yoane Wissa scored the opener, his first goal since arriving from Brentford in the summer.

Newcastle's home form remains the saving grace of their campaign. They have won eight of their last nine competitive home matches, and their only home defeats this term have been against Liverpool, Arsenal and Barcelona. Overall it's 10 wins from 14 home matches this term, and since the start of last season it's 27 victories from 39 outings at St. James' Park.

The concern for Newcastle is their growing injury list. Gargantuan centre-back Dan Burn broke a rib and punctured a lung during the Wear-Tyne derby, and Sven Botman was already on the sidelines. Tino Livramento picked up a knee injury on Wednesday, so Lewis Miley might have to deputise at right-back, with Kieran Trippier also out of action.

Maresca message hints at problems down the track

If Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca's recent reference to "his worst 48 hours at the club" was aimed at a lack of support from the club's owners, that's a story with a well-worn ending. Thomas Tuchel's pushback against amateurish interference cost him his job, and Mauricio Pochettino's alleged disagreement with Blues' co-owner Behdad Eghbali saw the former Spurs boss leave Stamford Bridge. It is a fight Maresca can't ultimately win, even though he has credit in the bank after delivering the Conference League and the Club World Cup.

Chelsea remain a confusing, unpredictable team, and they can only hide behind a shield of youth for so long. Over a billion pounds has been spent since Roman Abramovich left the club, and a title push has failed to arrive. That's not to say the club hasn't made progress under Maresca - the recent hammering of Barcelona in the Champions League suggests they have, and they've won 12 of their last 17 competitive matches - but nailing down that elusive sense of consistency is the missing piece.

Injuries haven't helped in that regard, and nor has a busy and draining summer. For all their much-vaunted recruitment, Chelsea look relatively weak at centre-back, and despite his recent improvement there are persistent doubts over whether Robert Sanchez is a title-winning goalkeeper.

Moises Caicedo is back from suspension, and should come straight back into the starting XI here. Alejandro Garnacho scored twice as a substitute in the League Cup quarter-final win at Cardiff, and is pushing for a start.

2.9 to win this.

I'll happily back them Draw No Bet at 2.1, which gives us a winner at odds-against if Newcastle win, and sees our stake returned if the game is drawn.

Chelsea have won just two of their last six away matches, and they were at struggling Burnley and League One side Cardiff City, and I think a fired-up Newcastle can cause them problems here.

Caicedo won't change his ways

Chelsea welcome back Moises Caicedo this weekend, after he was banned for a red-card challenge against Arsenal. If you look at the Ecuador international's 23 games for club and country, you can see he has picked up eight yellow cards and two reds. Remarkably, he has been shown a card in seven of his last ten games.

Caicedo is up against a tough midfield of Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton, and it's worth considering that Bruno Guimaraes is the third most fouled player in the division.

We could just back Caicedo to be booked at 15/8 as a single, but I'll throw in Over 3.5 Cards and Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled twice or more, and that gets us to 10/3 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder. Chelsea have had 31 yellows and five reds in the league, and Newcastle have collected 21 cautions and have had three players sent off.