Numbers show Tijjani Reijnders is closer to his best than critics claim | OneFootball

Manchester City supporters expected a certain profile when Tijjani Reijnders arrived from AC Milan; a relentless, box-to-box midfielder capable of controlling tempo, driving transitions, and dictating play.

But if the numbers are any indication, that expectation may have been misplaced.

There has been a growing argument that Reijnders has not replicated the level of output that earned him Serie A Midfielder of the Year in Italy, yet a closer look at the data suggests the Dutchman is far closer to that level than the perception around him implies.

Is Reijnders Actually Underperforming?

In the Premier League, Reijnders has made 25 appearances, playing 1,484 minutes and scoring five goals from an expected 3.96 – that works out at 0.30 goals per 90 minutes, marginally higher than his best season in Serie A with Milan.

During that campaign, he scored 10 goals from an expected 6.78 across 3,132 minutes and 37 appearances, producing 0.29 goals per 90. In other words, the rate that saw him recognised as the league’s standout midfielder is almost identical to what he is producing now.

It is also worth remembering the context of those figures. Reijnders’ standout Serie A season came across a full campaign of more than 3,000 minutes, while his Premier League sample size currently sits at less than half of that.

With nine league matches still to play, there remains plenty of time for those totals to grow, and his current per-90 output suggests the end-of-season numbers could look remarkably similar to those produced in Italy.

Creatively, the numbers are similarly steady. Reijnders has registered two assists from 2.11 expected assists in England, compared to four assists from 3.61 xA in Italy. His pass completion rate has also remained largely unchanged, dropping only slightly from 89.5 per cent in Serie A, to 88.7 per cent in the Premier League.

Identifying the Source of Fan Frustration

Where the biggest statistical difference appears is in long-range distribution, with Reijnders completing 73.2 per cent of his long balls in Italy – a figure better than 92 per cent of midfielders in Serie A. In England, that number has fallen sharply to 52.4 per cent, placing him around league average.

That disparity may help explain why some supporters view his performances as wasteful. Yet focusing solely on that metric risks misunderstanding the player entirely.

Decoding Reijnders’ Tactical Shift

Tijjani Reijnders is not a traditional box-to-box midfielder in the mould many anticipated. Instead, his profile is far closer to the late-arriving attacking role that Ilkay Gundogan mastered under Pep Guardiola – a midfielder tasked with timing runs into the penalty area and converting chances rather than dictating the rhythm of the game.

His 66 touches in the opposition box this season reinforce that interpretation.

There have undoubtedly been frustrating moments, missed chances that have lingered in the memory. But over the course of a full campaign, numbers suggest Reijnders’ output remains extremely consistent with the form that made him one of Serie A’s most productive midfielders.

The issue may not be performance, it may simply be expectation.