Opta Predicts Man Utd v Arsenal: Back Gunners win in 17/1 bet builder | OneFootball

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Premier League matchday 1 preview

🔗 Spotify

A new Premier League season is here, and punters do not have to wait long to see two traditional giants do battle.

The opening weekend is headlined by Sunday's meeting between Manchester United and Arsenal at Old Trafford, with both teams desperate for a fast start.

United have reshaped their attack by signing Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko, but will Ruben Amorim's new-look frontline gel immediately?

Arsenal, meanwhile, are looking to shake off their 'nearly men' tag after finishing as runners-up three years in a row. They hope Viktor Gyökeres - who starred under Amorim for Sporting CP - can prove to be the final piece of the puzzle.

With the help of Opta data, we have previewed this key contest and picked out some selections that could make up a season-opening Bet Builder.

Arteta gunning for strong start

Amid all the optimism about an improved Manchester United season this time around, we must remember that their 2024/25 campaign was truly dismal.

They accumulated the fewest points (42), scored the fewest goals (44) and finished lower (15th) than in any top-flight season since they were relegated in 1973/74.

The Red Devils failed to win consecutive Premier League games all campaign, and after Amorim took charge in November, they earned just 27 points from 27 matches. Arsenal won more than twice that tally (55) across the same period.

It is unsurprising, then, that the hosts are outsiders, priced at 27/10 for victory on Betfair Sportsbook. The draw is 13/5, with Arsenal 1/1 to record a road win.

Mikel Arteta's side have scored at least once in their last 11 away Premier League games against United and come into their latest trip having gone unbeaten through their final 14 away top-flight games of last season, though their seven draws in that time explain why the Gunners ultimately failed to challenge Liverpool.

Still, this is Arsenal's longest run without defeat on the road since their own Premier League record of 27, which ran from April 2003 to September 2004 and included their Invincible 2003/04 campaign. The team that ended that run? That would be United.

But it is difficult to make a case for the hosts after their dire results last campaign. United only won one of 10 games against fellow 'big-six' clubs in the Premier League, a last-gasp 2-1 triumph at Manchester City in December.

Arsenal, meanwhile, did not lose a single game against a big-six rival, though their five wins were accompanied by five draws.

Arteta's pragmatic approach may cause some punters to glance at the double chance market, but a price of 1/4 for them to avoid defeat does little for most Bet Builders. An Arsenal win, by contrast, could add some value.

Amorim has only overseen four Premier League victories at Old Trafford, which came against Everton, relegated duo Southampton and Ipswich Town (both of which saw United fall behind) and Aston Villa (who had Emiliano Martínez sent off and a potential opening goal controversially disallowed).

According to the Opta supercomputer, only Manchester City, who face Wolves, are more likely away victors than Arsenal this matchweek (46.3%), with their price largely matching that forecast.

Gyökeres debuts but everything goes through Saka

Last season was the first in Premier League history where no Arsenal player hit double figures for goals in the competition, with Kai Havertz leading the way on nine.

Having been outscored by Manchester City in 2022/23 and 2023/24, then by Liverpool last season, the Gunners hope they have finally found their marksman in Gyökeres.

Gyökeres - who is 6/1 to win the Golden Boot ahead of the big kick-off - plundered 68 Primeira Liga goals in two seasons at Sporting CP, more than any other player in Europe's top 10 leagues (Harry Kane was second with 62).

During that period, he overperformed his expected goals (xG) figures by 14.4, also the most by any player in the top 10 European divisions.

The Swede got off the mark for Arsenal with a majestic header in their 3-0 friendly win over Athletic Bilbao last week, prompting Arteta to say he will "destroy" defenders when one-on-one.

At 7/2, the former Coventry City man leads the first goalscorer betting, while he is 6/5 to net anytime, 6/1 to score two or more goals and 33/1 for a hat-trick. Gyökeres scored multiple goals in 10 different games last season, the most of any player in Europe's top 10 leagues ahead of Kylian Mbappé (eight).

But with Gyökeres yet to play in one of Europe's top five leagues, perhaps there is another player worth backing to score or assist.

Bukayo Saka's 16 goal involvements (six goals, 10 assists) were the most of any Arsenal player in the Premier League last season, despite injuries limiting him to 20 starts.

His 1,735 minutes played were the fewest of any Premier League player to reach 15 or more goal involvements, as he averaged a goal or assist every 108 minutes. His 0.83 goals or assists per 90 was also his best rate in any top-flight campaign.

Arsenal look to get the ball to Saka at every opportunity, with 42.7% of their attacking touches in 2024/25 occurring in the right-hand third.

Add in the fact that Saka has assisted seven Premier League goals from set-pieces in the last two seasons (only Declan Rice has more with eight), and the likelihood of United fielding the inexperienced Patrick Dorgu on his flank, and Saka looks attractive for a goal involvement at 6/5.

In terms of individual markets, Saka is also worthy of consideration at 13/2 to score first, 23/10 to net at any time and 11/4 to provide an assist.

Cunha to shoot on sight

United scored just 32 goals in 27 league games under Amorim last season, with only Southampton, Leicester City (19 each) and Ipswich (24) scoring fewer.

They hope their new £200m frontline will rectify those issues, though Sesko - who is shorter than any other United player in the anytime goalscorer market at 11/5 - may not be a certainty to start. Even if he does get the nod, a full 90 minutes after just one week with his new team-mates might prove beyond him.

But Cunha seems almost guaranteed to play a key role after arriving in June, and at 5/4 to attempt four or more shots and 15/8 to hit the target twice, he warrants attention in those markets.

Last season, Cunha represented a Wolves team that took the fifth-fewest shots in the Premier League, yet his 3.81 shots per 90 minutes were the most of any player to play over 1,200 minutes in the competition.

Cunha also ranked third for shots on target per 90 with 1.52, behind only Erling Haaland (1.97) and Mohamed Salah (1.63), so he only needs to surpass either of those per-90 averages slightly to land the two bets listed above and he will be eager to make an early impression.

And though Arsenal faced the second-fewest shots in the league last season (362, behind Manchester City), Cunha will try his luck from anywhere.

Only Eberechi Eze (1.97) averaged more shots from outside the area per 90 minutes than Cunha (1.9) last season, and the Brazilian hit the target from range 0.73 times per game, more than any other player.

Bruno Fernandes was third for shots attempted from outside the area per 90, with 1.85, and is priced at 10/11 to attempt three shots and 11/4 to hit the target twice. But with United's captain expected to play a deeper role, Cunha may hold slightly more appeal.

A Cunha debut goal is available at 13/5, while penalty taker Fernandes is 7/2 to find the net, having struck against the Gunners in both league and FA Cup play last season.

And with no player on the pitch rivalling Cunha's propensity to pull the trigger, the Brazilian could also be a fantastic option when it comes to Sunday's Match Ups betting.

Goalfest not anticipated

The likelihood of a Super Sunday goalfest is slim. Arsenal conceded the fewest goals (34) and allowed opponents the lowest xG total (35.1) of any Premier League team in 2024/25, having also been the best team by both metrics in 2023/24 (29 goals conceded from 28.4 xGA).

They were without Gabriel Magalhães for the final two months of last season, but the Brazil centre-back has recovered from a hamstring injury in a major boost for Arteta.

Throughout the last two seasons, Arsenal only conceded 0.8 goals per Premier League game when starting with Gabriel and William Saliba, compared to 1.1 when at least one of the duo was absent.

United's goalscoring issues last term were well documented, and they were even more pronounced against their top-six rivals. In five such matches at Old Trafford in the Premier League, the Red Devils failed to score a single goal from open play, with Fernandes netting a penalty against Chelsea and a free-kick against Arsenal (both in 1-1 draws).

And for all their defensive class, Arsenal are not always free flowing at the other end. They ranked sixth in the Premier League for xG last season with 61.6, a major drop-off from their figure of 77.5 the previous campaign.

Those figures suggest that Gyökeres' arrival may not the miracle cure Arteta desires, and we should not expect the Spaniard to abandon his focus on control and stability.

The last four meetings between United and Arsenal - three of them under Amorim - have all contained a maximum of two goals, and a price of 19/20 for under 2.5 goals will therefore tempt many.