Premier League Top 5 Finish: Are Chelsea set for final day failure? | OneFootball

Down to the wire

As it has promised to do from as early as the turn of the year, the race to finish in the top five of the Premier League this season is going right down to the wire.

Five teams chasing three places with the trio that make it joining Liverpool and Arsenal in next season's Champions League courtesy of a Top 5 Finish.

Just one matchday remains, and it's all to play for with just three points separating Manchester City in third and Nottingham Forest in seventh.

As you can see from the current standings below, Man City, Newcastle and Chelsea have matters in their own hands. A win for any of these teams on Sunday and it's job done, a place in the mega money Champions League awaits.

But don't discount Aston Villa or Nottm Forest. If Man City lose, or if Newcastle or Chelsea fail to win, then the door is wide open for either of the teams currently outside of the top five to gatecrash the party.

And what is fascinating, as you can see from the final day fixtures, is that Forest host Chelsea at the City Ground. A win for Forest and the billionaire Blues are effectively out!

Sunday's key fixtures (all 4pm kick-off)

- Fulham v Man City

- Man United v Aston Villa

- Newcastle v Everton

- Nottm Forest v Chelsea

The three clubs facing opposition with nothing to play for - Man City, Villa and Newcastle - are all odds-on to win their respective games, while Chelsea are 11/10 to beat Nottm Forest, who can be backed at 21/10. A draw is no good to either team if Aston Villa beat United and Newcastle avoid defeat at home to Everton.

Below is a detailed look at the possible permutations for the final round of fixtures.

Permutations

Man City

Manchester City will finish in the top five with a win over Fulham.

Because of their superior goal difference, City will finish in the top five with a draw at Fulham.

City will finish in the top five if they lose at Fulham and one of Aston Villa, Chelsea or Newcastle fail to win.

Newcastle

Because of their superior goal difference to Aston Villa, Newcastle will finish in the top five with a win over Everton.

Newcastle will finish in the top five if they draw with Everton and the Nottm Forest v Chelsea game is also a draw.

Newcastle will finish in the top five if they draw with Everton and both Aston Villa and Forest, or Aston Villa and Chelsea fail to win.

Newcastle will finish in the top five if they lose at home to Everton and Aston Villa lose and Nottm Forest fail to win.

Chelsea

Because of their superior goal difference to Aston Villa, Chelsea will finish in the top five with a win over Nottm Forest.

Chelsea will finish in the top five if they draw with Nottm Forest and Aston Villa fail to win, or if Newcastle lose.

Chelsea will almost certainly miss out on a top five finish with a defeat at Nottm Forest. They would require Aston Villa to also lose and Newcastle to lose by at least a four-goal margin to finish in the top five.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa will finish in the top five with a win over Man United and if the Nottm Forest v Chelsea game ends in a draw.

Aston Villa will finish in the top five with a win over Man United and if either Chelsea or Newcastle fail to win, or if Man City lose.

Aston Villa will finsih in the top five with a draw at Man United and if Newcastle lose.

Nottm Forest

Because of their inferior goal difference to three of the teams above them, only a win for Nottm Forest over Chelsea will give them a chance of finishing in the top five.

Nottm Forest will finish in the top five with a win over Chelsea and if either Aston Villa or Newcastle fail to win.

What does Opta's Supercomputer say?

Manchester City are 1/33 on the Betfair Sportsbook and 1.03 on the Exchange to record a Top 5 Finish, so it's no surprise that Opta say they have a 96.8% chance of finishing in the top five.

Newcastle - 1/5 in the Top 5 Finish market - have an 82.1% chance of finishing in the top five while Chelsea (4/7) are the other team rated as having a better than average chance of finishing in the top five places.

Below you can see the percentage chance of each club to finish third, fourth or fifth in the table as well as their overall percentage chance of finishing in the top five.

Prediction

Even with a defeat Manchester City would still have a big chance of finishing in the top five so it's impossible to see Pep Guardiola's men missing out on Champions League football, while a home game for Newcastle against an Everton team that can't move up or down the table, therefore meaning they have absolutely nothing to play for, is a perfect scenario for the Magpies.

So that leaves one place for either Aston Villa, Chelsea or Nottingham Forest, and while I can see Forest beating Chelsea at home, meaning the Blues will sensationally miss out on Champions League football despite spending fortunes in recent seasons, I just can't see Villa slipping up at Old Trafford.

United have been dreadful in front of their own fans this season, and come Sunday they'll either be in hangover mode or despondent mode depending on how Wednesday's night's Europa League final goes. I fancy Villa to go there and get the win that could see them finish fifth in the table.