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Curtis, Harvey and Chiesa: A Statistical Breakdown of Liverpool’s Cup Final Defeat

Liverpool’s 2-1 Carabao Cup Final defeat to Newcastle left many questions lingering over the team’s performance. In the latest episode of The Stat Me Up Podcast on Anfield Index, Dave Davis and Dr Barts took a deep dive into the numbers behind Liverpool’s underwhelming display at Wembley. Among the topics discussed were the impact of Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott, and the intriguing role of Chiesa, who found himself at the centre of key attacking moments.

Curtis Jones: A Lone Bright Spark in Midfield

In a game where Liverpool struggled for rhythm, Curtis Jones emerged as one of the few positives. Coming on in the second half, his presence immediately lifted the team’s control in midfield. “Curtis comes on, 94% pass rate—that is easily the best midfielder on the pitch that day,” said Dr Barts.

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His ability to dictate play was evident. “Thirteen final third passes in 35 minutes,” Barts added, a stat that underlines how much more progressive Liverpool’s midfield became once he was introduced. In a match where most players struggled to make an impact, Jones created 8.5% of Liverpool’s overall threat, an impressive figure considering his limited minutes.

Harvey Elliott: A Creative Force in a Frustrating Night

Another player who tried to change Liverpool’s fortunes was Harvey Elliott. Often deployed in the right half-space, Elliott showed glimpses of creativity despite Newcastle’s resolute defence. His 93% pass accuracy was a testament to his composure in possession, and he managed to provide two key passes, including the assist for Liverpool’s only goal.

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Dr Barts highlighted his influence: “Give the boy some credit—Harvey’s pass accuracy was 93%. Ten final third passes, two key passes, and he created 17.5% of our total threat.” Much of that influence came from his involvement in the goal, a well-executed through ball that showed his intelligence and technical quality.

Elliott’s determination was evident throughout, and even when his execution wasn’t perfect, his energy was invaluable. “He was trying to make things happen,” said Davis. “It’s a hell of a finish as well.”

Chiesa’s Role and Liverpool’s Struggles in Attack

One of the more surprising aspects of the game was how Chiesa found himself at the heart of Liverpool’s attacking efforts. Despite not featuring heavily in the pre-match narrative, he ended up with five penalty box touches, the highest in the Liverpool squad.

Barts was quick to emphasise his impact: “Of our 17 penalty box touches, Chiesa had five of them and played just 28 minutes.” This shows how much of a threat he was when Liverpool were finally able to get him involved in the game. His expected goals (xG) tally of 0.29 was the highest in the squad, highlighting that when Liverpool did manage to create chances, he was often the one on the end of them.

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His ability to beat defenders was also notable, winning 80% of his duels in a physically demanding contest. “Not bad for someone coming on late in the game,” Barts remarked. However, his efforts weren’t enough to turn the tide, as Liverpool struggled to convert possession into genuine goal-scoring opportunities.

A Warning for the Title Run-In

Liverpool’s defeat at Wembley raised wider concerns beyond the cup final itself. The reliance on a small group of players is becoming increasingly evident, with key figures like Curtis, Harvey, and Chiesa being asked to deliver in crucial moments.

Dr Barts issued a warning for the remainder of the season: “You can’t expect the same 11 to go 120 minutes against PSG, then play again at Wembley.” Fatigue is setting in, and unless Arne Slot begins to rotate more effectively, Liverpool could find themselves struggling across multiple competitions.

As Davis put it, “If Slot takes anything from this season, it’s that you have to use the whole squad.” The numbers from this defeat tell a clear story—Liverpool’s strongest performers were those who haven’t been overplayed. Managing that balance in the title race could be the difference between success and failure.