Saturday League One and League Two Tips: Addicks form a worry in 20/1 and 14/1 accas | OneFootball

EFL League One & League Two

Charlton travel to Huddersfield this Saturday seeking a first win since the start of October

Alan Dudman previews Saturday's fixtures in the EFL with a pair of trebles at decent prices...

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League One

Leg 1: Peterborough United v Reading, Saturday 15:00: Back Peterborough -2 @ 11/2

Peterborough served us well, in fact more than well last time with a thumping derby 6-1 win over Cambridge in a day of doom for Garry Monk's team. It highlighted once again when Posh get it right with so much pace in their team they can destroy anyone.

Reading will be sterner opponents but I've been poring over a bet here with goals for the hosts and the 11/2 on the -2 Handicap bet is risky of course, but can Posh score three? Of course they can.

It's now 20 goals at London Road this term - which is almost double that of the top two, and while it can be argued that Darren Ferguson's team are in a false position, Reading could be there for the taking considering their away form. They've won just once on the road and shipped 17 goals, and it's simple: the best home attack against the worst away defence.

Peterborough's Kwame Poke has more goal involvements (15 - 10 goals, 5 assists) in League One this season than any other player, including 10 in his last six league appearances (5 goals, 5 assists) and he's part of the electric front line and is 9/2 to score first.

KEY OPTA STAT: Just 21.7% of Reading's points in League One this season have been earned away from home (5/23), the lowest ratio of any side in the division.

Leg 2: Crawley Town v Rotherham United, Saturday 15:00: Back Crawley Double Chance @ 5/6

I was kicking myself last Saturday for missing out on the League One treble. Wrexham couldn't score and netted our bet there, whilst there seemingly hard bet with the Lincoln draw copped too, but Cambridge could only draw in the face of our win tip on Garry Monk's side and on reflection, the smarter play should have been on the Double Chance.

That's the bet to take on Crawley who look a big enough price here at 13/5 to win and 5/6 on the Double Chance.

Wins are hard to come by for Town, but they are harder to beat and are churning out draws - with three on the spin and two of those have been 0-0. Set-piece defending has been a problem all season so the 0-0s are a step in the right direction and they were big 3-0 winners against Lincoln last month.

Having only lost three of their opening 11 league games this season (W3 D5), Rotherham United have since lost three of their last four (W1) and something isn't quite working with Steve Evans at the moment. Goals are hard to come by on the road and I can see this being a low-scoring game.

KEY OPTA STAT: Rotherham have lost each of their last five league games against newly promoted sides, their longest such run since losing seven in succession from September 1995 to September 1996.

Leg 3: Huddersfield Town v Charlton Athletic, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/4

Huddersfield have won each of their last three home league games, their longest such winning run since December 2020, when they won five on the spin, so perhaps the tide is turning for Michael Duff, whose team have stuttered a bit this term.

Charlton promised plenty early on, but they are down in 13th and are looking far from a play-off team at the moment.

My punting with Charlton relies on their strong defensive shape, and away from home they struggle in front of goal. Nathan Jones' Addicks have scored just six on the road and created very little in their recent 1-0 loss at Exeter and their first-half display was very poor. They gave the ball away far too cheaply in the first-half and were under the cosh a fair bit with the amount of corners they conceded.

Jones was without 10 players at Exeter although he has refused to blame injuries, and while better in the second 45 at Exeter, it's hard to see them creating too much here. Five of their away games have banked for Under 2.5 Goals backers and that's a goer for Saturday.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have lost three of their last four away league games (D1), as many as their previous 13 beforehand (W4 D6 L3).

League Two

Grimsby didn't fire last weekend for the column as they failed to score in a 0-0 at Newport although it was more open than the scoreline suggested as Newport missed a penalty and David Artell said afterwards: "On the flip side, did we do enough to win it? Maybe, on another day. We had some great chances, but so did they. So, maybe a point is a fair result. On another day, we score our chances and win two or three nil, or they score theirs and do the same."

They achieved a 0.92xG rating from that Rodney Parade match but on the plus side it was back-to-back clean sheets on the road as lest we not forget they beat AFC Wimbledon recently 0-1 at Plough Lane.

Colchester have failed to win any of their last eight league games (D5 L3), while they last won on the road back in April when they defeated Crawley Town 3-2 and a place in the bottom four means we can easily pass them by and they have drawn five since the beginning of October.

Danny Cowley mentioned the footballing gods last weekend at Bradford, so hopefully the footballing gods will be with us.

KEY OPTA STAT: Colchester United have won their last two away Football League games against Grimsby Town, as many victories as across their prior 14 visits to Blundell Park combined (D5 L7).

Leg 2: AFC Wimbledon v Walsall, Saturday 15:00: Back The Draw @ 11/5

Wimbledon recently lost their 100% record at home with the previously mentioned 0-1 defeat to Grimsby, and they also failed to earn a maximum last Saturday with a 2-2 against Accrington thanks to a 90th minute equaliser.

They were two down in the game but fought back in what was described as a "mad finish" by Johnnie Jackson.

Omar Bugiel scored a hat-trick for the Dons in the corresponding fixture last season in a 5-1 thrashing of the Saddlers, but Walsall are a different animal this season and Mat Sadler is doing an excellent job.

Indeed, Walsall have the best away defensive record in the division with just five conceded and I am finding it hard to split the two for this, although we have to fly in the face of the Opta stats here as none of the 10 Football League meetings between AFC Wimbledon (6 wins) and Walsall (4) have been drawn, with Walsall failing to keep a single clean sheet against the Dons.

Jackson won't want a repeat of the mad rush last Saturday but they've been one of the best teams out of possession this season, and with such a strong home record defensively I am happy to play the draw at 11/5.

KEY OPTA STAT: Walsall are unbeaten across their last four away league games (W2 D2), last enjoying a longer such run on the road in January 2023 (five matches).

Leg 3: Notts County v Newport County, Saturday 12:30: Back Anytime Goalscorer Alassana Jatta @ 11/10

Alassana Jatta's superb run of form for Notts County this season earned him in international call-up for Gambia recently and he made his debut in the AFCON last week, and he was missed as the Magpies without their talismanic forward lost their unbeaten away record with a 0-2 defeat at Crewe.

Jatta's return as the key here, as County really struggle for goals with him and veteran David McGoldrick, and they were very uncharacteristic with just 1.16xG last weekend.

Newport County have won just three of their prior 25 away league games against Notts County (D3 L19), conceding 3.5 goals per outing during that run and this term have conceded 15 on the road. With that in mind, I'd be amazed if Jatta didn't have a chance or two to get on the scoresheet.

With 10 in 13 appearances this term we can back him at 11/10 here versus a Newport team that have lost 10 of their last 12 away league games (W2), scoring just nine goals in total across that time whilst conceding 23 at the other end.

KEY OPTA STAT: Notts County won both of their league games against Newport County last season, scoring exactly three goals in both of those victories.

Recommended bets

You can back Alan's League One treble 0.5pt @ 20/1

You can back Alan's League Two treble 0.5pt @ 14/1