Scotland v Japan: Take on the Scots plus a 5/1 fouls bet to attack | OneFootball

Scotland fans will have been watching the stress and ultimate heartbreak on Thursday night with a wry smile. Wales, Northern Ireland the Republic of Ireland all failed to fire in the World Cup play-offs meaning they'll have to watch the summer extravaganza from home with no skin in the game.

Scotland are already there after qualifying for their first World Cup in 28 years.

They can enjoy this international break and games against Japan and Ivory Coast offer up different types of opposition from the usual European norm that will stand them in good stead when tackling tackle Brazil, Morocco and Haiti at the upcoming finals.

Japan backed to prevail

There's a slightly odd feel to the way this market is reading this game.

Scotland, playing at home, backed by a passionate crowd fresh from qualifying for a World Cup should be all about positivity and momentum, yet the market is firmly pointing towards Japan as the stronger team.

Japan are trading at 2.42 on the Betfair Exchange with Scotland at 3.2, that tells you plenty.

Friendlies International: Scotland v Japan (Match Odds)

Saturday 28 March, 5.00pm

Japan

Back 2.34

Lay 2.4

The Draw

Back 3.5

It reflects two teams heading in very different analytical directions.

Japan are a side the market clearly respects. One defeat in 16 competitive matches is a rock-solid return, even if you caveat the strength of opposition across Asian competition. But what really catches the eye is how they approach these so-called low-stakes fixtures.

Three wins from three in the last international break - including a headline-grabber against Brazil - suggests a team that doesn't down tools in friendlies. In fact, quite the opposite. There's a tactical discipline and cohesion to Japan that translates regardless of the setting. They play with a repeatable style, and more importantly, they tend to hit their performance levels consistently. Those are teams I like to invest in.

That's in stark contrast to Scotland.

Finishing top of their group to qualify for the World Cup is a notable achievement. But scratch beneath that and the underlying numbers make for grim reading. Across their last 17 competitive matches, Scotland's expected goals supremacy (xG for minus xG against) sits at -0.65 per 90. That's not the sort of figure you'd expect from a European team taking the automatic route to major tournaments.

It paints a picture of a side that lives off moments rather than control - clinical finishing, big saves and fine margins. And while that provides excitement and can get you through qualification campaigns, it's not a profile I'm keen to trust when the market is asking questions.

Friendly results should always be taken with a pinch of salt of course. Motivation, rotations and rhythm can all skew the data. But when a team repeatedly delivers in these environments - and even posts a win over Brazil - it becomes a trend rather than noise.

So, with the market already leaning this way, I'm happy to follow Japan for the win.

Midfield match-up makes Sano fouls bet worth backing

If you're stepping into the slightly murky waters of international friendlies from a betting perspective, you've got to think differently in terms of trusting certain form lines. But one angle that does carry over nicely is player-based match-ups, and that's where the value tends to hide.

Wataru Endo is in a race against time to be fit for the upcoming World Cup for Japan. His absence at Hampden Park leaves a hole in that Japanese midfield - one that looks set to be filled by Kaishu Sano.

At first glance, Sano's club numbers don't scream "foul machine". He averages just 0.45 fouls per 90 minutes domestically. Pretty tame.

However, international football tells a slightly different story.

Sano has racked up seven fouls across his last four starts for Japan, and the eye test backs that up. He plays with a noticeably sharper edge for his country, more aggressive in duels, quicker to engage and perhaps more willing to disrupt than he is at club level in a more disruptor type of role.

If Sano is deployed in the heart of midfield, he's walking straight into a collision course with Scotland's two most fouled players:  Scott McTominay, who is averaging 1.9 fouls won per 90 across his last 30 games and John McGinn, who is averaging 2.2 fouls won per 90 across his last 30 games.

You can use Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 offer to back Lewis' Bet Builder on the Scotland v Japan game here: