Serie A fight for top 4: How Champions League spot will be decided | OneFootball

Following the 1-1 draw between Lazio and Juventus, there is the very real possibility the fight for that fourth Serie A Champions League spot will be decided by a mini-league of head-to-head records.

While Atalanta look as if they might have enough of an advantage to at least secure a top four finish, the battle for that remaining position is going down to the wire.

Lazio and Juventus remain locked together now on 64 points, followed by Roma (who visit Atalanta on Monday) with 63, Bologna 62, Milan 60 and Fiorentina (who have a game in hand) on 59.

If two or more Serie A teams finish level on points

ROME, ITALY – MAY 10: Randal Kolo Muani of Juventus scores an opening goal during the Serie A match between Lazio and Juventus at Stadio Olimpico on May 10, 2025 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Marco Rosi – SS Lazio/Getty Images)

Although the Scudetto has a provision for a play-off, that is not the case for lower down the table.

If two teams finish level on points in Serie A, they are separated first by their head-to-head record, then goal difference in the head-to-head, only then do they look at goal difference overall and total goals scored.

The situation is even more complicated if three or more teams finish level on points.

In that case, a Classifica Avulsa is drawn up – a mini-league table collating the head-to-head results of the sides involved.

To make matters even tougher to calculate, there are still some showdowns yet to be played, so the pattern of head-to-head records is incomplete.

MILAN, ITALY – MAY 09: Santiago Gimenez of AC Milan scores his team’s third goal as Lukasz Skorupski of Bologna fails to make a save during the Serie A match between AC Milan and Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on May 09, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Here is the situation as it stands.

Serie A head-to-head records

Atalanta, 68 points, played 35

Advantage over Bologna and Juventus

Disadvantage with Lazio

Still to play with Roma

Juventus, 64 points, played 36

Advantage over Lazio and Milan

Level with Roma, Bologna and Fiorentina

Disadvantage with Atalanta

Lazio, 64 points, played 36

Advantage over Atalanta and Milan

Level with Fiorentina

Disadvantage with Bologna, Roma and Juventus

ROME, ITALY – MAY 04: Artem Dovbyk of AS Roma celebrates scoring his team’s first goal with teammate Bryan Cristante during the Serie A match between AS Roma and Fiorentina at Stadio Olimpico on May 04, 2025 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Paolo Bruno/Getty Images)

Roma, 63 points, played 35

Advantage over Lazio

Level with Lazio

Disadvantage with Bologna and Fiorentina

Still to play against Atalanta and Milan

Bologna, 62 points, played 36

Advantage over Lazio and Roma

Level with Juventus

Disadvantage with Atalanta and Milan

Still to play against Fiorentina

MILAN, ITALY – APRIL 20: Luka Jovic of AC Milan is challenged by Isak Hien and Juan Cuadrado of Atalanta during the Serie A match between AC Milan and Atalanta at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on April 20, 2025 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)

Milan, 60 points, played 36

Advantage over Bologna

Disadvantage with Juventus, Lazio and Fiorentina

Still to play against Roma

Fiorentina, 59 points, played 35

Advantage over Juventus, Roma and Milan

Disadvantage with none

Level with Lazio

Still to play against Bologna