Southampton kicked out of play-off final? Finance expert predicts hearing outcome | OneFootball

Southampton have been charged with breaching the EFL's rules against spying prior to their play-off clash with Middlesbrough

Southampton are at risk of being removed from the play-offs as a result of the spying case against them by the EFL.

The Saints were allegedly caught spying on Middlesbrough’s pre-match training session ahead of their play-off semi-final clash.

Tonda Eckert’s side earned a fourth place finish in the regular campaign, ending the term level on points with the Teesside outfit.

And an extra time goal from Shea Charles separated the two teams after the 1-1 draw over the first 180 minutes of their two-legged affair.

Hull City now await in the final, but the threat of expulsion is clouding Southampton’s preparations for the trip to Wembley Stadium.

It’s been claimed that an independent commission will conduct a hearing before or on 19 May, with the EFL hoping for a swift resolution in order to avoid further disruption to the play-off final.

Southampton likely to avoid play-off expulsion

Football finance expert Stefan Borson has claimed that expulsion from the play-offs is unlikely at this stage, suggesting it would be an excessive move relative to the breach of the rules committed by the Championship side.

He believes there won’t be a lot of time to put together a full case against the Saints, but that a strong punishment will be necessary in order to show clubs that breaching the rules against spying will be taken seriously.

“There’s not going to be a lot of time to collate all the evidence,” said Borson, via Football Insider.

“They’ll establish that there was a breach of the rules and it’s not the first time they’ve done it, and they’ll want to send a signal that it’s not acceptable.

“Do I think that they can conclude that the right punishment is to throw them out of the play-offs entirely? That feels excessive to me.

“Now, I’m not sure it would be appealable if that’s what they come up, just because there’s not a lot of guidance and the appeal board will have to defer in many ways to whatever they came up with.

“They might not win an appeal if that was the decision that they’re thrown out the play-offs, but it just seems to me that it’s unlikely.”

Borson has predicted that the most likely outcome from the case is that Southampton will receive a points deduction that will impact their next Championship campaign, which could carry over to the Premier League if they gain promotion, along with a hefty fine.

“The most likely scenario is that they get a points deduction for next season if they’re in the EFL, and probably not a points deduction in the Premier League,” he added.

“I guess it’s possible that they say, ‘If you’re in the EFL, it’s six points.

“We’ll make a recommendation to the Premier League, who can ignore it’.

“Frankly, there’s no requirement on the Premier League to accept any recommendation from this disciplinary.

“They’re not handing over the process to the Premier League, which is the other option that could have been taken.

“If Southampton would have got promoted, they could have handed over the whole thing, but they wanted to get it done before the play-off.

“My best guess would be six points next season and a £500,000 to £1 million fine.

“We’ll see this week whether I’m in the ballpark.”

Leeds United were fined £200,000 for spying on Derby County prior to a league meeting between the two clubs in February 2019.

However, this incident led to the EFL introducing a rule which prohibits spying on opponents’ pre-match training within 72 hours of a fixture.

No club has been found guilty of breaching this rule before, meaning the EFL will be setting a precedent with whatever the outcome is of this upcoming hearing.

That the teams are competing in the play-offs adds another wrinkle to the entire dynamic, as a case occurring during the regular campaign wouldn’t have the same time pressure, and a points deduction would have the desired impact.

But Southampton are now just one win away from promotion to the Premier League, which would be far more lucrative than a £200,000 fine, with Eckert’s side set to face Hull on 23 May.

Play-off expulsion would be an extreme step to take against Southampton

The punishment for a guilty verdict in this spying case is going to leave someone unhappy, whether it’s Southampton or Middlesbrough.

Excluding them from the play-off final would be an extreme step to take against the Saints, although it would deter other clubs from ever attempting to copy their strategy.

A points deduction for next season makes a lot of sense, although it wouldn’t feel just for Boro, who will feel they’ve been cheated out of a chance to compete for promotion.

This entire saga has left the EFL in a tricky position, and it’s unlikely that the outcome of this hearing will be the end of it either.