Sunday Football Tips: Back 30/1 Goalscorer in the FA Cup semi final | OneFootball

English Premier League

Jimmy The Punt thinks Murillo's price to score in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley is too big.

Jimmy The Punt has two tips for Sunday's Premier League action and a 30/1 punt in the FA Cup semi final...

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Bournemouth vs Manchester United - 14:00 (Sky Sports)

Bournemouth are 1.72 to beat Manchester United in the Premier League, imagine seeing that price 10 years ago.

Times change and the scary thing is it's about right. Ruben Amorim's side are in bad form domestically, winless in four.

The Red Devils are part of a cluster of teams trying to avoid finishing in 17th. Two points separated Everton in 13th to West Ham in 17th at the beginning of the weekend with Man Utd in 14th on 38 points.

Their focus has to be on Europe with the first leg of the Europa League semi-final on the horizon, it wouldn't be a shock to see a rotated side on Sunday as Amorim tries to salvage the season with some silverware.

Sunday's hosts Bournemouth are in eighth, eight points behind Aston Villa in seventh but have managed to stop the rot recently.

Having only taking one from their previous five games, the Cherries have taken five points from the last nine on offer. They look to be ending the season on a high.

As far as the betting is concerned here, there is one angle that really stands out. Although it is a popular one, you really would be cutting your nose off to spite your face by avoiding it.

Tyler Adams is evens to commit 2+ fouls with the Sportsbook.

Bournemouth's midfield's foul record is cynical.

Adams has averaged 1.7 fouls per game this term and hit this line in each of his last six appearances.

Liverpool vs Tottenham - 16:30 (Sky Sports)

Liverpool need only a point to be confirmed as champions and opponents Tottenham play Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League semi-finals next Thursday.

It's part of the reason the hosts are 1.28 to win with the Betfair Exchange.

With a big European game round the corner, Spurs' big hitters are probably going to get a rest on Sunday and this should see Richarlison lead the line for the visitors at Anfield.

A former Toffee, at his old rivals stomping ground, on the night the Reds are expected to lift the Premier League trophy. What could possibly go wrong?

The Brazilian will be double motivated to get one over his old foe. Exactly how this motivation will manifest itself remains to be seen but his price to score, be carded or commit some fouls are all worth considering.

I think to 4/5 available with the Sportsbook for him to have a shot on target is the way to play this. He has scored two in his last two league appearances, four in his last five and racked up 14 shots across that period, hitting the target seven times.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City - 16:30 (ITV1)

At the time of writing, I simply do not know who will be waiting for the winner of Nottingham Forest and Manchester City in the final of the FA Cup. And, to be honest, I don't know who's going to win here either. There's just so many uncertainties.

How are Nottingham Forest going to respond to the occasion?

Nuno Espirito Santo's side looked to be sliding out of the Champions League spots in February taking one point from three games but snapped back by going six unbeaten. This includes the penalty successes over Brighton and Ipswich in this competition.

Write them off at your peril. As cliche as it may be.

When the pressure was on at the City Ground, they beat Pep Guardiola's in the last league meeting in March. It is worth noting, Man City won 3-0 at the Etihad back at the start of December.

After another wobble this month, losing to Aston Villa and Everton, Forest got back to winning ways at Tottenham in their last outing. It keeps them in fourth spot for now, ahead of this trip to Wembley.

Tottenham are an entirely different proposition to Manchester City though, especially if Pep gives Forest the respect they deserve.

If the Cityzens leave themselves vulnerable in transition, Nuno's pacey attack could pick them off at will.

Instead of getting tied up in knots with the tactical intricacies, I am just going to have a punt loosely based on the fact Wembley goals just look bigger than usual goals.

Betfair Sportsbook has the industry best price for Nottingham Forest defender Murillo to score anytime at 30/1, for context the same bet is as short as 11/1 with some firms.

Why not?

Although the defender is not shooting as regularly as he was earlier in the season, domestically he is averaging 0.63 shots and 0.13 shots on target per 90. With a xG per 90 of 0.04, the price available for him to score on Sunday is a few points too big.

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