Supercomputer predicts: BVB have no chance in the Champions League | OneFootball

Borussia Dortmund starts the 2025/26 Champions League as an outsider, according to a supercomputer. Bayern, Leverkusen, and Frankfurt also face tough challenges in Europe’s premier competition.

The 2025/26 Champions League season kicks off on September 16, but it could be a tough challenge for the German teams. Borussia Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayer Leverkusen, and FC Bayern are all considered outsiders according to a simulation by statistics provider Opta.

In 10,000 simulations, the supercomputer determined the most likely outcomes for the 36 participants. The favorite is English champions Liverpool FC, with a 20.4 percent chance of winning the Champions League. FC Bayern surprisingly ranks only eighth, with a 4.3 percent chance.

The forecast is especially disappointing for Borussia Dortmund. The 2024 finalist has just a 0.9 percent chance of winning the title and sits in 14th place, tied with Belgian club Club Brugge. This puts BVB, who will start the new Champions League season at Juventus Turin on September 16 (9 p.m.), well below their own expectations. At least, according to the supercomputer, there are still chances to advance: the probability of reaching the quarterfinals is 19.1 percent.

BVB facing a tough Champions League season?

Bayer Leverkusen, the 2024 German champions, are given just a 0.7 percent chance and rank 17th. Eintracht Frankfurt doesn’t even make the top 20, with only a 0.59 percent chance of winning the title. In the 10,000 simulations, three teams failed to win a single match: Kairat Almaty, FC Paphos, and Qarabag FK—true outsiders in the Champions League.

Liverpool benefited in the summer from major investments in the squad, including the signings of Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong from the Bundesliga. The club is also considered very likely to qualify directly for the round of 16, with a 79.5 percent chance. Arsenal follows with 16 percent, defending champions Paris Saint-Germain with 12.1 percent, and both Manchester City and FC Barcelona with 8.4 percent each.

The forecast is clear: Bundesliga teams currently face tough tasks in the Champions League. Whether BVB can defy the gloomy predictions remains to be seen. But as we know, football is not just about mathematics, but also about commitment and passion.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.