Supercomputer reveals Sporting’s chances in the Champions League last 16 | OneFootball

Opta, the football statistics specialist, simulated the final matchday of the Champions, using a supercomputer to predict the final results of each game thousands of times, calculating the probabilities of each team qualifying directly or advancing to the play-off, highlighting Sporting - which may see the return of a player - as having better chances of reaching the round of 16 than Benfica (to the play-off).

The matchday requires not only following the Lisbon clubs’ duels but also keeping eyes and ears on other fields. However, according to the percentages obtained by the algorithm, Sporting, when compared to their red-and-white rivals, can ‘stretch their legs’: "Sporting, 13 points. Direct qualification for the round of 16: 37.4%; Qualification at least for the ‘play-off’: 100%" - "Benfica, 6 points. Direct qualification for the round of 16: 0%; Minimum qualification for the ‘play-off’: 27.0%".

Furthermore, only six teams have already secured their situation, although their final position in the standings is still to be determined. Arsenal and Bayern, the top two, are already in the round of 16. Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal, and Kairat, the bottom four, can no longer even reach the play-off.

Aside from that, everything is still open, although mid-table teams Galatasaray and Qarabag have almost zero chance of escaping the play-off: they could reach 13 points, but it is almost impossible that would be enough to be 8th or better; mathematically, they could drop below 24th, but the 10 points they currently have would only not be enough in a catastrophe.

Returning to the Portuguese case, remember that for the Lions, direct qualification for the round of 16 requires a mandatory win against Athletic, in Bilbao, but that may not be enough, depending on other results. And in Benfica’s case (for play-off qualification), it is mathematically mandatory to beat Real Madrid, where a favorable goal difference compared to the competition may help, but nothing is guaranteed.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.