The blueprint for winning the Premier League title – and Aston Villa’s missing piece

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The Independent

·30 janvier 2026

The blueprint for winning the Premier League title – and Aston Villa’s missing piece

Inside Football for just £1 for three months during our transfer window offer. This Friday’s members-only edition lands at a moment when the stakes – and scrutiny – are at their highest, with the January window entering its decisive phase.

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It is the kind of detail that will sound ridiculous to fans any time they see their club at their most hapless, or when they witness individual errors. The NFLisation of the Premier League is nevertheless now so pronounced that the football leadership groups at major clubs have naturally plotted exactly how to build a title-winning campaign.

League victories no longer tend to just happen. They normally require proper build-up, with final pieces put in place after long, careful construction.

Mikel Arteta has been so immersed in such plans at Arsenal that he has obsessed over every detail, right down to the average profiles of champion teams. It is also why Arsenal’s target for this season has been over 90 points. For Chelsea, the leadership team around co-owner Behdad Eghbali have been actively trying to build a 100-point squad. That is a major club target.

These are big numbers that, of course, reflect the long-term dominance of Manchester City. The Abu Dhabi project has changed the parameters, primarily through the empowerment of Pep Guardiola.

It is also why figures within certain clubs actually get aggravated by how so many former Manchester United players constantly talk in the media, given that “they won some of their leagues with 75 points”.

“That would barely be possible today,” as one source relayed.

Barely possible, but not completely impossible.

There is always that odd season where a few different elements align, things open up, and there is suddenly new opportunity. One was exactly 10 years ago, when Leicester City won the title with a mere 81 points.

open image in gallery

Unai Emery, right, suffered defeat to his former club (Nigel French/PA) (PA Wire)

Might the expansion of the Champions League force a similar effect? Might it sufficiently fatigue clubs? For all their planning, after all, Arsenal are currently in line for 83 points.

That is also why Saturday at Leeds United feels such a hinge match. If Arsenal win, you can see conviction returning and a run developing to secure something like the 89 points they achieved in 2023–24. If they do not, might there be a confidence crisis that brings a tailspin and crash, blowing the league wide open?

Could that really give Aston Villa an opportunity? Are they being too readily dismissed? They are up there as late as February. For all the focus on Arsenal’s great quest, can Villa surge towards something greater? Can Emery really do something special – and historic?

You can now start to envisage it. They have a relatively forgiving Premier League schedule until the end of the season, when they then play reigning champions Liverpool in the second-last game, and possible title rivals City in the final match.

The very reference to a potential rare opportunity here is not to do Villa down, however, but to touch on something acutely relevant the Basque himself said.