Vasco’s relegation odds after home slip-up: see the latest chances

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·18 septembre 2025

Vasco’s relegation odds after home slip-up: see the latest chances

The 2-2 draw with Ceará, this Sunday (14), at São Januário, in the 23rd round of the Brazilian Championship, cost Vasco dearly. Despite taking the lead, the São Januário team once again faltered defensively and let two important points slip away in the fight against relegation.

+ Vasco informs the court of millions in debt with Atlético

Vidéos OneFootball

Photos: Matheus Lima/Vasco.

With the result, the Cruzmaltino reached 23 points and occupies the 15th position, the same score as Santos, which drew with Atlético-MG at Arena MRV and appears in 16th place.

According to the Mathematics Department of UFMG, Vasco's risk of relegation dropped from 36% to 33.2%. Meanwhile, Santos currently has a 33.7% probability of playing in Serie B in 2026.

Relegation chances in the Brazilian Championship:

Sport – 96.1%
Fortaleza – 74.8%
Juventude – 50.5%
Vitória – 50.3%
Santos – 33.7%
Vasco – 33.2%
Grêmio – 15.8%
Atlético-MG – 11.4%
Internacional – 10.4%
Ceará – 10.4%
Corinthians – 5%
Fluminense – 4.4%
Red Bull Bragantino – 3.8%
São Paulo – 0.10%
Botafogo – 0.051%
Bahia – 0.007%
Mirassol – 0.001%

Vasco's next match will be decisive for their ambitions in the championship, as the team needs to regain strength at home to move away from the relegation zone.

+ Vasco's shirt in homage to the Círio de Nazaré sells out in a few hours in Belém