Who will win the 2025/26 Premier League? A look at Arsenal, Man City & Chelsea | OneFootball

The 2025/26 Premier League campaign is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory; after Liverpool broke Manchester City’s long-running dominance last season, many expected another tight race at the top. 

Instead, the previous year produced a surprisingly straightforward finish, with City faltering midseason and Arsenal unable to close the gap.

This year feels different. Several major clubs have strengthened and early results have been volatile, with the top of the table already carrying the look of a marathon rather than a procession.

Arsenal’s early lead and growing confidence

Arsenal have emerged as the early pace-setters, beginning the season with an intensity that reflects their steady improvement under Mikel Arteta. Their advantage at the top of the table may be modest, but the manner in which they have controlled matches has drawn attention from bookmakers and analysts.

A narrow slip against a resurgent Sunderland halted their winning streak, yet the overall structural solidity of Arteta’s squad remains one of the league’s most reliable features. Their defensive organisation and rehearsed set-piece routines have been consistent pillars of their success.

With a four-point cushion in hand, many betting markets now treat the Gunners as the team to catch, with sentiment building that their 22-year wait for a title could finally be approaching its end.

Manchester City’s pursuit hinges on key performers

Manchester City, meanwhile, sit in close pursuit despite an uneven beginning to their campaign. Their reliance on Erling Haaland has been conspicuous; the Norwegian striker has contributed more than half of City’s league goals, making him both a blessing and a concern for Pep Guardiola’s side.

When Haaland is in rhythm, City remain one of the most dangerous teams in Europe. However, their supporting cast has not reached its usual levels of creativity or efficiency. Phil Foden, reinvigorated by strong Champions League performances, has begun showing signs of the influence many have long expected from him.

If he maintains this trajectory, City’s attack could regain the balance it has occasionally lacked.

Their latest victory over Liverpool was a reminder that, even when not at their sparkling best, they possess enough individual talent to force their way back into the title race.

Liverpool’s stumble after a record-breaking summer

Liverpool entered the season under heavy scrutiny after breaking the British transfer record twice to secure the arrivals of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak. Their recruitment signalled an intent to build on the momentum from Arne Slot’s debut season, but results have not followed the script supporters imagined.

Arne Slot (Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images)

The campaign began with encouraging late victories, yet the form that carried them early faded during a damaging four-match losing run. A restorative win against Aston Villa briefly halted the decline, only for City to expose Liverpool’s inconsistencies once again.

Sitting mid-table, Liverpool now face an uphill battle to rejoin the title conversation. Their defensive fragility, coupled with challenges in integrating new attacking patterns, means they must rediscover both confidence and consistency if they hope to reduce the growing gap to the leaders.

Manchester United’s attempted revival under Amorim

Manchester United’s struggles last season reached historic lows, culminating in a 15th-place finish and a painful Europa League final defeat. Those disappointments necessitated change and Ruben Amorim has gradually begun to impose his tactical identity on a squad still shaking off the shadows of instability.

Recent weeks have brought signs of progress: a run of three victories, including an impressive win at Anfield, momentarily lifted the mood around Old Trafford. However, back-to-back draws against Nottingham Forest and Tottenham showed that United remain a work in progress, cemented by their latest loss to Everton at home. Their defensive structure continues to improve, but they require greater attacking fluidity if they hope to sustain an ascent toward the top four or beyond.

Bettors remain cautious, treating United as long shots for the title but acknowledging their general (but often wavering) upward momentum when key players are fit.

Chelsea’s inconsistent push toward contention

Chelsea entered the season hoping to leap from top-four regulars to genuine challengers, yet their inconsistency has been a defining theme so far. Moments of high quality, such as victories over Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, have been counterbalanced by unexpected stumbles, including a surprising home defeat to Sunderland.

Their most recent wins against Tottenham and Wolves demonstrate what this squad is capable of when it finds rhythm. Still, the unpredictability surrounding the team makes them a difficult proposition for bettors and analysts.

Their ceiling remains high, but their floor has been exposed too often to consider them stable contenders without significant improvement.

Betting trends and the impact of new restrictions

Fans and bettors have turned their attention toward how the title race may unfold, with markets for the Premier League winner especially active. Outright bets remain popular, with punters studying each contender’s early form as they look for value before the season reaches its demanding winter stretch.

Although most attention is placed on the simple question of who will finish first, the broader betting terrain has noticeably shifted as well. That shift has been influenced in part by recent prop-bet restrictions in the U.S., which have reduced the availability of certain individual-performance wagers on major European leagues.

As a result, more bettors (particularly those participating in international markets) are funnelling their focus back toward traditional outcomes such as title winners, top-four finishers or relegation odds.

That renewed emphasis on outright markets has heightened interest in the Premier League’s competitive picture, particularly as its early weeks have produced results few anticipated.

A title race set for twists

As the Premier League reaches the middle stretch of the season, the title race appears far more open than many anticipated. Arsenal hold the early advantage, but City’s experience, Liverpool’s potential, United’s resurgence and Chelsea’s unpredictability ensure that volatility remains a defining feature of the campaign.

With betting markets adjusting weekly and outright wagers gaining renewed focus across global platforms, the months ahead promise drama on and off the pitch.

If early trends are any indication, the battle for the 2025/26 Premier League crown may deliver one of the most compelling finishes in years.