Why England are finally ready to deliver on their World Cup destiny | OneFootball

For some of the more superstitious England players, the timing was telling. The first night at their boutique Kansas City base coincided with game five of the NBA finals. A ferocious storm was whirling amid tornado warnings, with Scotland’s 1-0 win over Haiti also attracting attention, but a few of them made sure to be in place for tip-off.

By the time the New York Knicks sealed a 94-90 win over the San Antonio Spurs to clinch a first championship in 53 years they were jumping around. One player still had the presence of mind to point to the parallels between the storied New York team and England, from the constant noise around them to the tension of that long wait. Arsenal finally winning the title was of course referenced, too.

And as superficial as all of this may seem, it can have genuine substance for players. Such ephemera fosters a belief, a feeling that stars are finally aligning, in a way that can genuinely fortify conviction in actual play.

That it’s their time, too. That it’s fated, with 60 years since their last and only triumph in a World Cup.

Anyone reading this could of course point to multiple previous World Cups where England thought the same, which was almost every time. It plays into a strange back and forth before every tournament. The national football culture’s collective psyche is both constantly built up and always beaten down. Excessive expectation is perpetually tempered by oppressive pessimism; the hope that this one will be different is offset by the fear it’s always the same.

Those years of hurt have since been capped by a decade of even more agonising close calls. Getting so near to glory, in a manner not seen since 1966, has only made the same disappointment all the more exquisite.

The usual emotions, however, shouldn’t cloud rational analysis in the moment. The view among other major countries is that English success just has to happen eventually, even amid mirth at how they never do it. The squad is too good. The country has invested too much, right up to the contract for Thomas Tuchel.

It is actually a kind of reverse alchemy that it hasn’t happened yet. The basic maths should have dictated otherwise. One of the strongest and wealthiest football cultures, with a population of almost 60 million people, has somehow only ever won one major trophy and none in six decades. The banners at the Kansas base saying “Route 66” are both a nicely predictable play on numbers and a little poignant. Even that mythic Wembley win over West Germany doesn’t mean what it did. It’s been too long, the only relevance really in how England are the only World Cup winner to have only ever won that trophy, while also having gone on the longest drought of all former champions.

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England have settled into their World Cup base in Kansas as anticipation grows for the start of their tournament (Reuters)

That wait is now all the more inexplicable since the FA have also directly followed the examples of France, Spain and Germany in using the immense wealth of a western European football nation to industrially overhaul their talent infrastructure… but still don’t have the same reward. Spain and France have instead gone through two separate cycles of victories since their revolutions. It should really have happened for England by sheer law of averages.

What is often unsaid in such discussions, however, is how such widespread transformation can still require that final touch of luck, the toss of a coin, the bounce of a ball. Knock-out football is still that capricious. It is instructive that everyone around the England camp - right up to Harry Kane - believes that their best modern tournament was actually, statistically, their worst. The 2022 World Cup was the only one since 2018 where they didn’t make the semi-finals, but the level of the football was far superior. England just happened to play an elite side as early as the quarters and lost a 50-50 through a penalty miss. It happens.

But might this be a competition where that same fortune falls England’s way? The squad is far from perfect but no one’s is. This is an open field, with few outstanding teams.

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England's defeat to France in the 2022 World Cup came by the narrowest of margins after Harry Kane's penalty miss (Getty)

Spain and France are widely considered the finest but not without problems of their own. Spain displayed some of theirs in a laborious 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, while the first week of the tournament repeatedly suggested an unusually open World Cup. Other European sides have mostly struggled.

If England manage to top the group, too, the indications are they will be on the softer side of the draw. The team have of course benefitted from that in recent tournaments, only to come up against familiar disappointment: to fall to the first elite side they play.

That nevertheless points to how wider structural change almost makes the last human element more decisive. Gareth Southgate did an admirable job in bringing wider forces together for an actual team, but he was clearly lacking something that makes a winning team. Tuchel, by contrast, is not. As one experienced figure put it, England “finally have a coach who has been successful in knock-out football, and can instil confidence from authority”.

Nobody is privately doubting whether Tuchel is “a winner”. It helps condition the same conviction that feelings about fated moments do. There is less doubt. The contrast has already formed one major difference from Southgate’s time, and fostered a more sophisticated tactical approach.

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In Thomas Tuchel, England finally have a coach that has been successful in knock-out football (Getty)

An irony nevertheless exists in how you can go through so much change and Tuchel can still somehow face the same fundamental challenges that his predecessor did back in 2018. England, yes, must finally beat elite opposition in a big tournament match. Germany 2021 at home doesn’t quite constitute that.

And, to manage it, England probably have to figure out how to control a game without a pure six. As good as Elliott Anderson is, he’s still adapting to a role. That points to another irony in England’s recent revolution. Superior coaching has produced an abundance of No 10s, but Tuchel would love just one of them to be able to translate that technical ability to a more withdrawn role.

That frustration isn’t unique to England, though. France have a similar cluster in attack, but would love a Declan Rice. Spain have a similar cluster in midfield, but would love a Kane. The striker’s rare guarantee of goals may prove a significant differential, but then Argentina and Brazil would also love England’s depth.

The key difference is that all of these teams have won trophies in the modern era, let alone in colour television. They don’t have the same neuroses, the same debates, the same fixations.

That’s why it’s so important this tournament feels different. It’s also why there’s so much on this opening match against Croatia. It isn’t even so much about topping the group but about actually telling everyone - including the players - where England actually are.

So much of the confidence around Tuchel was sparked by the 5-0 win away to Serbia, but that has since been tempered by how Mexico - potential last-16 opponents at the Azteca - also beat the same side 5-1. Maybe Serbia were just that bad. Maybe England aren’t that good. Maybe, maybe, maybe… so much uncertainty, so much of the same back and forth.

It’s why England have never needed a big game to come more, with the fact this match is the penultimate of the first round only prolonging the wait, either putting off reality or building up the anticipation. It’s almost the moment. This time… surely?