Why securing the best possible spot in the Champions League matters | OneFootball

League Phase 2.0

Unlike what happened in 2024/25, this season it’s already possible to look at the revamped Champions League format with a different perspective. The lack of history in a League Phase format not only made the first stage more exciting, but also more unpredictable.

Right from the start, because in the old Group Stage, the last matchday often just served to complete the schedule, even considering that third-placed teams would move on to the Europa League.

In this format, anyone finishing below 24th place already knows they are truly saying goodbye to European competitions. On the other hand, the fact that so many teams are involved in the same league means that the possible combinations going into the last two matchdays are almost endless.

If the teams finishing in the top eight go directly to the round of 16, the teams between 9th and 24th place will have to do a lot of math to anticipate possible opponents in the play-off for access to those round of 16, a stage where Sporting (23rd) fell last season, already with Rui Borges at the helm, over two legs, at the hands of Borussia Dortmund (9th).

Sporting’s Current Situation

The Lions can still return to the top 8, which they reached after the fifth matchday, but it’s in the play-off zone that they should focus their main attention at this stage. In 14th place, with 10 points from six games, the Lions can abandon the idea of reaching the top 8 if they fail to score against PSG at Alvalade on January 20.

Even if they win in Bilbao, against Athletic, a week later, the 13 points accumulated in that scenario won’t be enough for the top 8, just as happened last season, with Aston Villa, the last team to make the top 8, finishing with... 16 points.

Meanwhile, an almost certain situation is emerging: Sporting probably won’t need any more points to secure the play-off. And going into the last matchday at San Mamés, they will already (or not) have that guarantee, depending on the mathematical combination of results that can be made at that time. However, finishing 9th or 24th is not at all the same, with a ‘mirror’ draw being held. Let’s see:

The teams finishing between 9th and 16th place secure play-off access, with the advantage of being seeded and playing the second leg at home. Thus, the teams in 9th and 10th will face, after the draw, either 23rd or 24th; teams in 11th-12th will face teams in 21st-22nd, and so on.

The teams between 17th and 24th place also enter the play-off, with the disadvantage of playing the second leg away. The teams in 17th and 18th, on the one hand, are not seeded, but in theory may face a more accessible opponent, as they will face either the 15th or 16th placed teams.

Last season, for example, after the League Phase ended, Sporting (23rd), in the penultimate play-off spot, already knew before the draw that they would face either Atalanta (9th) or Borussia Dortmund (10th), two of the best-ranked teams among the play-off clubs.

The European Champions PSG at Alvalade

The reigning European champions, runners-up in the Club World Cup, and recent winners of the Intercontinental Cup play at Alvalade on January 20. A match of maximum difficulty for the Portuguese double champions.

More than Sporting surpassing themselves, the Lions’ chances are more related to French efficiency, which under normal conditions will create several goal-scoring opportunities in Lisbon, as they did in Bilbao in the last Champions League match, but Unai Simón was inspired. So, if Rui Silva doesn’t have a night similar to the Basque goalkeeper, it will be hard to counter PSG’s favoritism, according to bookmakers like Bwin or Betano.

With odds around 4.00 for a Sporting win, it’s clear that the most expected outcome would be a victory for Nuno Mendes’ team, with odds below 1.82. Most surprising is that bookmakers pay almost as much for a draw. We recommend, however, that anyone believing in a Sporting win should protect their bet with the Bwin Portugal bonus, for example. The probabilities are low, but no result is ever certain.

The Trip to San Mamés at the End of January

If PSG confirms their favoritism a week earlier, the match in Bilbao could be especially dangerous for the Lions. The Basques are having a season well below expectations, but have the individual quality to impose their identity on a “good night” that could complicate life for Rui Borges’ team, who at that time will still be without Quenda and likely without Pedro Gonçalves as well.

With 5 points currently, the Basques face Atalanta in the 7th matchday, in Bergamo, and if they don’t win that game, they will absolutely need to beat Sporting to “dream” of the play-off. And even if they win in Italy, they will still very much need that last game.

One way or another, that’s the other “obstacle” the Lions will have to face on January 28, to secure the highest possible position in the play-off spots. And why not imagine an incredible direct qualification for the round of 16?

The Misleading Lesson of 2024/25

In 2024/25, Dinamo Zagreb’s 11 points, for example, were not enough for the Croatians to reach the play-off, finishing 25th, just short of the goal, missing out due to a negative (-7) goal difference, losing that tiebreaker to Club Brugge, Sporting, and Man City, all also with 11 points, but with an advantage in that tiebreaker criterion.

However, this season, it is highly likely that the 10-point mark will be enough to enter the play-off. Because almost all teams with ambitions to break into the top 24 and who have fewer than 7 points (that is, at least 4 points behind the Lions) will also have equally tough matches.

Union St. Gilloise (6 points) plays in Munich against Bayern; Pafos (6 points) plays at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea; Bilbao (6 points), who later will even face the Lions, plays in Bergamo against a surprising Atalanta and, finally, Benfica (6 points), for example, plays in Turin, but still ends up hosting Real Madrid.

If these four “underdogs” don’t all win at the same time, there’s no way to imagine Trincão and company missing out on the play-off for the round of 16. And once again, the bookmakers point to quite favorable odds for Sporting in this regard, though Sporting will still have to give their all to score points in the last two matchdays.

The Objective and Useful Lesson of 2024/2025

Even a team that finishes in the second half of the play-off zone (17th-24th) and is “lucky” enough to avoid “giants” in the play-off, may later “feel the consequences” of a League Phase below expectations. Thus, Sporting, even if they qualify with the same 10 points they currently have, should clearly aim to optimize their final position in the League Phase.

Last season, Benfica (16th) for example, found an accessible Monaco (17th) in the play-off, but then faced Barcelona in the round of 16, because the Catalans had finished the League Phase in second place. In other words, the “mirror effect” draw always ends up benefiting the team with the best performance.

This season, if Sporting loses to PSG, they will certainly finish below 16th and thus risk facing teams like Liverpool (who by then may be much stronger than now) or Barcelona, as both are in that “combat zone,” that is, below 8th and above 16th place. Unless they win in Bilbao, in a match that could be worth much more than just play-off access for Sporting.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.