2026 World Cup: Which European Nations Had the Best xG in Qualifying?  | OneFootball

How much can one truly read into performances in qualifying as a barometer for what to expect at the actual World Cup? In Europe, it's certainly difficult to tell. Nations such as Andorra, San Marino, and Liechtenstein were routinely pummeled on the road to North America, providing stat-padding sessions for the continent's finest.

But while none of those minnows will head across the Atlantic this summer, several unheralded outfits will. 

The tiny Caribbean island of Curacao made history in qualifying as it became the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup. They will be joined by Cape Verde, who themselves come in as the third smallest participant in history. Without wanting to sound disrespectful, you'd expect Europe's finest to handily dispatch both, while racking up goals and pinging the xG stat time and again. 

But which European nations racked up the best xG scores throughout qualifying? And perhaps most importantly, does it actually mean anything ahead of this summer's showdown? Let's take a look. 

Portugal

The upcoming World Cup will be a monumental one for Portugal and specifically for their greatest ever player. This summer will be the last time that the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo ever ventures onto the global stage, with the Portuguese skipper now aged 41.

He - alongside long-time nemesis Lionel Messi - will make history by featuring at a record sixth World Cup. And if qualifying is anything to go by, CR7 will have a bucketload of opportunities to add to his haul of right goals on this storied stage. 

Roberto Martinez's men racked up a whopping 2.84 xG per game throughout qualifying, the most of anybody in the UEFA region. And still, they managed to outperform that expected number by some three goals.

The Seleção das Quinas scored 20 goals in a group consisting of the Republic of Ireland, Hungary, and Armenia. 15 of those goals came against the latter of that trio as Ronaldo and Co. beat the Caucasus outfit 9-1 in Lisbon and 5-0 in Yerevan. 

Despite their goalscoring exploits in qualifying, however, online betting sites don't list Portugal among the favorites to win the World Cup this summer. The latest World Cup odds currently list them as an 11/1 fringe contender, well behind frontrunners Spain and England. However, there is one tantalizing prospect that football fans can rejoice at. 

Should Portugal top Group K and Argentina top Group J as expected, then we will likely see a face-off between Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi in the quarterfinals, with both all-time greats battling it out for a spot in the semifinals at their last-ever World Cup. If that doesn't get the juices flowing, nothing will. 

Spain

Spain returned as a major player in the international football landscape two years ago when they won UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany, and they did so well ahead of schedule. La Roja had one of the youngest squads of anybody at that particular tournament, with teenage prodigy Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Pedri, and Fermín López all aged 21 or younger.

Fast forward to 2026, and all four of those players have continued to develop, with the now 18-year-old Yamal already arguably the finest player on the planet. 

Luis de la Fuente's men racked up an expected goals total of 2.74 throughout their qualifiers, second only to the aforementioned Portuguese. They too somehow managed to outperform that lofty figure as well, netting 21 times in six games, over five goals more than xG projected.

The pick of their results was a Mikel Merino-inspired 6-0 drubbing of Türkiye in Istanbul, a performance that rubber-stamped their status as the favorites to win the World Cup. 

The Spaniards will head across the Atlantic as the clear 9/2 frontrunners to leave with a second-ever World Cup in tow. Having been drawn into a favorable group alongside Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, de la Fuente will be expecting another impressive tournament. 

Belgium

Four years ago in Qatar, Belgium was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Following reports of dressing room bust-ups between key players Kevin De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois, the Red Devils were dumped out in the group stage, despite heading to the Arabian Gulf as a contender to go all the way. Fast forward to now, and a few remnants of their golden generation remain. 

De Bruyne, Courtois, Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard, and Axel Witsel are all at least 31 years of age, while the likes of Dries Mertens, Eden Hazard, and Jan Vertonghen are all long gone. As such, the new generation led by the likes of Jeremy Doku and Charles De Ketelaere must pick up the slack if Belgium is to contend again. If qualifying is anything to go by, they are ready to do exactly that. 

The Belgians managed an impressive xG average of 2.62 goals per game in qualifying. They topped Group J undefeated, finishing ahead of both Wales and North Macedonia to secure their fourth straight World Cup appearance.