42 Points to Survive? La Liga’s Gripping, Unprecedented Relegation Battle | OneFootball

With two matchdays to go, the relegation battle in La Liga is as tight as it’s ever been. Who has the edge?

Across Europe, the football season is approaching its climax. For some, that’ll mean celebrations, jubilation; for others, it’ll bring despair and tears.

In many cases, fans probably already have some idea which category they fit into. In La Liga, however, uncertainty is rife. Spain’s top flight is producing one of the most gripping conclusions to a season in living memory for one simple reason: the teams in danger of relegation keep earning points.

Beyond the top four or five teams, La Liga has been fairly tight all season. But that’s reached a new level in recent weeks with the sides near the bottom earning points at a surprising rate, and the mid-table sides – even those in European contention – enduring a late-season slump.

Real Sociedad, for instance, had been in contention for Champions League football via a fifth-place finish not so long ago, but they’ve won just one of their last eight La Liga games and none of five since beating Atlético Madrid on penalties in the Copa del Rey final nearly a month ago. They are now eighth, just six points above the relegation zone and 13 adrift of Real Betis, who clinched fifth last weekend.

The fact La Real are as high as eighth but sit only six points above the bottom three tells you all you need to know about the mad scrap to avoid relegation in La Liga.

While Real Oviedo appeared doomed long before their relegation was confirmed a couple of weeks ago, almost everyone else is putting up a real fight.

We ought to reserve a special mention here for Sevilla.

A run of two wins from their first 13 league matches of 2026 had them sinking without a trace. Relegation became a legitimate worry again, as it had been last season.

They dropped into the bottom three on MD32 after losing 2-1 at Osasuna, with that their fifth loss in six games, the odd one out being a 2-1 win over a much-changed Atlético Madrid. Given they still had to face Real Sociedad, Villarreal and Real Madrid, their outlook wasn’t great.

But Luis García Plaza, hired to replace Matías Almeyda on 24 March, has overseen three league wins on the bounce since that loss in Pamplona, something Sevilla hadn’t managed since April 2024.

The most recent of those victories, away to third-place Villarreal on Wednesday, saw Sevilla come back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica.

Remarkably, having looked utterly bereft just a few weeks earlier, Sevilla shot up to 10th before settling in 12th after Thursday’s results. They’re not mathematically safe as they’re still only four points clear of the bottom three, but at the same time, European qualification isn’t completely beyond them.

Wins over Real Madrid and Celta Vigo in their final two games would see them finish on 49 points; Getafe, currently seventh, occupy the Conference League qualification spot with 48 points.

Either way, the main thing for Sevilla – who are currently in the process of being taken over by a consortium led by academy product Sergio Ramos – is that the threat of dropping down to the Segunda for the first time since 2001 appears to have been fought off. Relegation would, according to reports, have wiped up to 30% off their value in the takeover.

Beneath Sevilla, however, there are seven teams separated by three points. In one of the relegation battle’s latest twists, Espanyol climbed up to 14th with Thursday’s 2-0 win over Athletic Club, an outcome that left coach Manolo González in floods of tears at full-time; after all, it was their first league win since 22 December.

Then, Levante, Mallorca, Elche, Alavés and Girona occupy positions 19 to 15, and they’re all on either 39 or 40 points.

Like Sevilla, Levante also warrant particular attention.

Los Granotes are still very much in the thick of it, with only Oviedo below them. But at the end of MD24, they found themselves seven points adrift of safety; now, they are only behind Elche in 17th due to their head-to-head record.

Levante are the form team in the bottom half of the table ahead of the weekend, having won three of their last five La Liga fixtures.

But their transformation actually goes back quite a bit further.

Since Luís Castro was appointed head coach on 20 December last year, Levante have taken 30 points from 21 matches, a figure bettered by just five teams over the same period.

Levante do benefit in that respect from having played a game or two more than most teams in that time, so they drop to seventh on a points-per-game basis (1.43). But that is still a significant achievement.

Even that might not be enough, though.

It’s looking increasingly plausible that La Liga’s record for most points by a relegated side in a 38-game season could be broken (excluding play-offs).

Currently, that dubious honour belongs to Deportivo La Coruña, who were relegated in 2010-11 despite accumulating 43 points. Compostela went down with 44 in 1997-98, but their relegation was clinched by a play-off defeat after finishing 17th.

There have been three other instances of teams being relegated from La Liga with 40+ points in a 38-game season. Real Betis account for two of those, dropping down to the Segunda in 1999-00 and 2008-09 with 42 points on both occasions.

Real Zaragoza endured a similar fate in 2007-08, also going down with 42 points.

Of course, there have been other tense conclusions to the relegation battle in La Liga since it became a 20-team competition in 1997-98.

Five points separated 20th from 13th after MD36 of the 2000-01 season; 2005-06 reached the same point with just four points between 18th and 12th; and 2010-11 went into the final two matches with 11th-placed Mallorca just five points clear of Zaragoza in 18th.

But a gap of just six points between 19th and eighth ahead of the penultimate round of matches? That’s certainly not happened since the league was reduced to a 20-team league, and while we can’t actually verify this, it’s probably never happened in any guise of La Liga.

On the face of it, Sevilla, Valencia, Osasuna and Espanyol are probably safe. The remaining relegation spots are likely to be taken up by two of Levante, Mallorca, Elche, Alavés and Girona, but who has the advantage?

Well, as mentioned, Levante are the form team and host Mallorca this Sunday in what will be a vital encounter. Their trip to Seville to face Real Betis on MD38 looks considerably tougher on paper, but Manuel Pellegrini’s side have already secured Champions League football and can’t finish any higher than they are, so it might not be as daunting as it otherwise would’ve been.

Mallorca, on the other hand, have the benefit of the easiest remaining games, statistically speaking. The average Opta Power Rating of their last two opponents – Levante and Real Oviedo, the current bottom two – is 83.1.

If anyone has their future in their own hands, it’s Mallorca. But as we’ve seen, Levante’s league position doesn’t really align with the team they are right now.

Their meeting won’t be the only relegation six-pointer, though. Because there are so many teams in trouble, there are still a host of games left that will pit two of the strugglers against each other.

Ignoring relegated Oviedo, the only teams in the bottom half of the table who don’t face another side from the bottom half are Valencia and Sevilla, the two teams with the most points (43).

The Opta supercomputer isn’t completely discounting Valencia (0.13%) or Sevilla (0.48%), but each of them were relegated in under 1.0% of the latest 10,000 season simulations; it’s also pretty confident Osasuna (1.4%) and Espanyol (3.3%) have done enough.

After that, however, there are five teams who went down in at least 18% of the latest sims.

Alavés (18.9%), it thinks, are least likely among the sides on 39 or 40 points; there’s then a jump to Girona (31.8%), followed by another leap to the other three.

There’s not much separating Elche (51.2%), Levante (47.6) and Mallorca (45.3%) in the supercomputer’s projections.

With Mallorca – deemed the least likely of those three to go down – averaging a final points total of 41.9, the supercomputer’s predictions suggest a team will need at least 42 points to stay up.

For any of the teams fighting for their lives, one win could be the difference between salvation and doom.

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