AI simulates Notts County v Salford City play-off final 1000 times - here's who won most | OneFootball

ChatGPT's AI has simulated the League Two play-off final at Wembley between Notts County and Salford City 1000 times. Here's what it thinks...

Notts County face Salford City at Wembley in the League Two play-off final, with a place in League One at stake for both clubs.

If the league games this season are anything to go by, Salford City should be favourites against Notts County. They won both fixtures 2-1, including scoring a late winner at the start of April in an eventful clash at the Peninsula Stadium.

A return to League One for the first time since 2015 awaits Notts County. To highlight how long it's been, the season before that was a campaign where a young Jack Grealish was on their books on loan from Aston Villa.

Meanwhile, Salford have never played in English football’s third tier in their history. The highest level they have reached is League Two, which they were promoted to in 2019 and have been in ever since.

What ChatGPT thinks will happen in Salford against Notts County

So much is at stake, but it looks a fairly evenly-matched fixture on paper. In the regular season, they both finished just short of automatic promotion. Salford finished fourth on 81 points, while Notts finished 5th on 80 points.

For more context, per FotMob, in terms of xPts, Notts County had 75 and Salford 73. The problem is that Salford won both league meetings 2-1. With all that information, we asked ChatGPT for an answer as to who will claim victory.

It ran a 1,000-match AI-style simulation of a hypothetical Notts County vs Salford City League Two play-off final using the context provided. Here is what was said below:

Because the margins are so fine, the model gave Salford only a very slight edge overall due to their head-to-head record and marginally stronger end-product.

1,000-match simulation results

Breakdown

Verdict

The simulation suggests Salford would win the final around 54.2% of the time, with Notts winning 45.8%.

It is essentially a coin-flip match-up, but Salford’s ability to edge tight games — shown by two 2-1 wins in the regular season — nudges them narrowly ahead in the simulations.

Why the Wembley atmosphere will work in Notts' favour over Salford

Notts are going to take plenty of fans down to Wembley, which could inarguably be a huge factor on the day. If anything, AI will not factor this in, and it could be what tips things in favour of the bigger historical club.

It could easily be influenced by the atmosphere as much as quality on the pitch. While the two sides are closely matched statistically, Notts will almost certainly hold a significant advantage in terms of support inside the stadium.

Notts possess one of the larger and more historic fanbases outside of English football's third tier, and their supporters are capable of generating a genuine big-game atmosphere. Wembley occasions often become emotional events, particularly in tight matches, and that energy can help players sustain their level during difficult spells.

Salford's recent rise has been impressive, but they simply cannot yet match Notts for crowd size or occasion-driven support. According to Transfermarkt's attendance figures for League Two, Notts had the highest in the division, while only four clubs averaged less than Salford.

A tense final can be decided by fine margins, which is why that backing could provide Notts County with the psychological edge needed to get over the line.