AI simulates Southampton v Hull City play-off final 1000 times - here's who won most | OneFootball

The Championship play-off final is now a matter of days away

The Championship play-off final is fast-approaching, with Hull City and Southampton preparing to do battle for a place in the Premier League.

The two sides' preparations may have been hindered by the ongoing 'spygate' saga concerning Saints' controversial and eventual semi-final victory over Middlesbrough, but it was revealed in a statement by the EFL that the governing body are working on the likelihood of a 4:30PM kick-off on Saturday, May 23rd at the national stadium.

While Tonda Eckert's side have been in hot water before, and since their 2-1 aggregate success over the Teesside outfit, Hull boss, Sergej Jakirovic, has also issued his thoughts on the matter after his team continued to defy the odds by defeating third-placed Millwall 2-0 at The Den last Monday to seal their passage to the North London showdown for the first time in a decade.

It is an encounter which has plenty riding on it, with Southampton also no strangers to Wembley visits in recent times, having suffered their only defeat in any competitions, since a 2-1 loss to Hull on January 17th, at the 90,000-capacity ground when Manchester City staged a late comeback in the FA Cup semi-final on April 25th.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have never lost a Championship play-off match until now, and it would cap off the most memorable of first seasons at the MKM Stadium for Jakirovic, after his side were tipped for relegation to League One at the start of the season after being hit with a two-window transfer fee restriction.

Regardless of the pre-game circumstances, play-off finals are so tough to predict for many. However, Football League World asked AI-based chatbot, ChatGPT, to simulate the final 1,000 times, and see who is most likely to come out on top.

AI predicts Hull City to have the edge on Southampton after 1,000 Championship play-off final simulations

They say that what has gone before matters little in one-off matches such as the play-off final, with Southampton certainly the favourites as the occasion edges closer, largely due to their impressive run throughout 2026, whilst Hull dramatically returned to sixth on the final day before outmuscling the Lions over two legs.

However, even though a fair portion of the Saints squad also featured in their Wembley success over Leeds United two years ago, AI believes that one big advantage from City's perspective is that they are the only side to achieve a league double over the Hampshire outfit this term, winning 3-1 and 2-1 at the MKM Stadium and St Mary's in September and January respectively.

As such, the Tigers, throughout AI's 1000-game simulation, have come out as the victors, winning 548 times compared to Southampton's 452.

This would give Jakirovic's team a 54.8% winning probability over 45.2% for Eckert's chargers, with the most common scoreline being 1-0 to the men from East Yorkshire.

If that was to be the case, it would continue a remarkable success trend of City winning every single one of their Championship play-off finals 1-0, having done so previously against Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday in 2008 and 2016 respectively.

Hull City and Southampton's third showdown will be an intriguing spectacle

While City have done the double over Southampton this season, the first of those was during Will Still's disastrous tenure of two wins in 13 games before his dismissal, whilst Eckert was also feeling the heat at the time of their second success four months ago.

As such, Saints will feel they are a different team completely, while also feeling the majority of the footballing world will be in favour of Hull as a result of the spygate allegations.

On neutral ground, over 70,000 spectators from the two fanbases are expected to be present, with the atmosphere, as always, set to be raucous and play a part in what looks set to be a baking hot afternoon in the capital on a wide pitch.

However, all the pre-game drama will certainly not affect Hull, who have shut out the outside noise remarkably well all campaign long to reach this point, and they know they are also potentially 90 or 120-plus minutes from writing their names into club folklore.