Are Newcastle in the relegation battle? A Tottenham comedy conundrum | OneFootball

Newcastle fans would be more than happy to write this season off after a run of four consecutive defeats and nine in their last 12 Premier League games. 2026 has been a disaster.

But while most would take the campaign ending now on the basis of European qualification being no more than a pipe dream and increasing numbers believing the end of Eddie Howe’s tenure can’t come soon enough, should they perhaps be looking over their shoulders with four games to go?

In the 20 team Premier League era, the average number of points needed for survival by finishing 18th is 35.53. No team in the last nine campaigns has earned 36 points and been relegated, but that probably won’t be enough this season.

Tottenham are currently 18th and will need nine points from their remaining games against Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A) and Everton (H) to go above Newcastle, though eight may be enough to survive on goal difference ahead of the Magpies.

West Ham will need seven points from Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle (A) and Leeds (H) to surpass Newcastle. Nottingham Forest need four (probably only three) points from Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Manchester United (A) and Bournemouth (H). Leeds need three (maybe just two) points from Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H) and West Ham (A).

Newcastle going down would require a set of very specific results given the number of games being played between relegation rivals, a miraculous uptick in form from Tottenham in particular and Nottingham Forest and Leeds not now taking a lax approach to the Premier League amid respective Europa League and FA Cup commitments.

These numbers have also been crunched on the assumption that Newcastle pick up no further points in their remaining games against Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), West Ham (H) and Fulham (A). For anyone watching the Magpies over the last three months that’s not a grand assumption.

Say Newcastle lose to Brighton next Saturday while Tottenham claim an unlikely win away at Aston Villa and West Ham beat Brentford at the Gtech, those of us hoping for the funniest relegation outcome will be faced with a conundrum.

Having rooted for Tottenham defeats and been granted them before Joao Palhinha’s winner at Molineux on Saturday, bathing joyfully in the prospect of a Big Six club dropping out of the top flight and for a long time wondering what acts of kindness we’ve done to deserve such comedy riches, could we in fact be treated to an even more amusing conclusion?

Newcastle aren’t a Big Six club, but being state backed makes them a similarly tasty giant to kill. There’s also the shock factor – Tottenham have been terrible and tipped for relegation for arguably too long; Newcastle coming from nowhere to go down might just be better than a long-drawn-out demise, and surely more entertaining.

We’ve gone giddy. We know it’s very, very unlikely, but with the precedent of West Ham going down on 42 points in 2002-03 in the back of our minds we will continue to dream of what may implausibly be a more amusing relegatee than Tottenham.