Arsenal v Crystal Palace: 7/5 Gunners too good for tired Eagles who can rack up cards at17/10 | OneFootball

Arsenal v Crystal PalaceTuesday 23 Decemberr, 20:00 kick-offLive on ITV 1, ITVX, Sky Sports Football & STV

The final delayed Carabao Cup quarter-final sees Arsenal host Crystal Palace with a semi-final tie against Chelsea awaiting the winners.

The Gunners are Christmas No.1s in the Premier League and flying high in the Champions League and have everything in their favour as 8/15 favourites, even with Mikel Arteta expected to make a good few changes for this one at the Emirates.

Taking a wider view, you could argue a two-legged semi-fial and possible Carabao Cup final would offer more trouble than it's worth with Arsenal chasing two much bigger prizes, but it'd be a huge shock to me if Arsenal didn't beat a Palace side who are running on fumes right now.

Oliver Glasner's fine start to the season has come to a shuddering stop of late with injuries piling up just as much as the fixtures. They're 5/1 here after 3-0 and 4-1 league defeats either side of a Europa Conference League draw.

Both sides played Saturday night but Arsenal had a week off before that so the quick turnaround will be fine, but Palace are really paying the price for success - with this their fifth game in 12 days. Yes, you should expect more games after winning things but the Eagles have been hard done by.

Arsenal have won seven of eight meetings, including in last season's quarter-final, have a healthier squad with far more recent rest, while Glasner will have to dig deep into a squad far less talented, so there's only one winner for me.

Both teams to score is 1/1 and if Arteta makes a load of changes then it could present chances, but a few early home goals could see tired Palace heads just drop - more likely is a home landslide but we'll just back a few goals either way.

Back cards for Eagles

For other bets, the cards market caught the eye and in particular the 17/10 on over 2.5 away cards for Palace which I think certainly has legs given the circumstances.

The Eagles have gone 3-3-2 for cards in their last three games, there'll be more team changes leading to another disjointed performance, plus they're away at Arsenal with a decent crowd up and regardless of who plays a team with the Arteta way of winding opposition players up.

The last visitors to the Emirates, Wolves, got four bookings and given extra tired legs and possible frustration for Palace, three bookings should be easy work.

Lerma the pick for a booking

Player props are tough given how many changes will be made. Gabriel Jesus scored a hat-trick in this fixture last season and is 7/4 anytime goalscorer on Tuesday - he's tipped to start.

Watch out if Ethan Nwaneri gets a start as the 2/1 anytime goalscorer chance has four goals in five League Cup starts.

Nobody can better Eddie Nketiah's 13 League Cup goals since he made his competition debut in 2017 - he's 4/1 to score but is by no means certain to start, while Christantus Uche is 5/1 and after two goals in two starts in Europe may deserve a start here.

Jefferson Lerma came on for Will Hughes at half-time against Leeds on Saturday so that will likely be a switch made from the start - and that means the Colombian is a top target in the cards market.

Lerma is 21/10 to be booked at the Emirates. He's seen yellow three times for Palace in the league this season despite limited starts, he even managed one in just a six-minute cameo off the bench against Man Utd.

In a big game like this but with a better side likely to play around him Lerma is a good bet for a booking if he makes the starting XI. He's not a bad shout even if he's on the bench!

Now read