Arsenal v Manchester City League Cup Final Tips: Don't expect goals at Wembley | OneFootball

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First leg of quadruple beckons for Arsenal

It's rare that the manager of a top club survives nearly seven years at the helm of a top club with just one major trophy delivered, but Mikel Arteta's reign has been characterised by a sense of hope throughout. A belief that glory was merely around the corner, just one season or transfer window away. A trio of second-placed finishes in the last three seasons of the Premier League added to that feeling that this was a masterpiece that merely needs the final few flourishes.

As Arteta knows, it's now time to fulfil that potential, to claim the trophies his backers in the boardroom and in the stands crave. It's time to satiate a fanbase that has had to watch even bitter rivals Tottenham claim silverware more recently than their beloved Gunners. Failure is unthinkable.

Momentum is a key word in football, and victory at Wembley could be the first leg of an astonishing quadruple. Arsenal have a sizeable lead in the Premier League, they'll face Championship opposition in the last eight of the FA Cup and they are 3.55 favourites on the Betfair Exchange to lift the Champions League too.

Arsenal swept aside Bayer Leverkusen in midweek in the Champions League, and have won 11 of their last 13 games in all competitions. Their last defeat was a 3-2 home reverse against Manchester United in late January. Their only meeting with Manchester City this season saw Gabriel Martinelli grab a late leveller in a 1-1 draw at the Emirates.

Arteta hasn't committed to allowing backup keeper Kepa to start this final, so his fellow Spaniard David Raya is in the mix. Jurrien Timber and Martin Odegaard hope to be involved after injury, and Arteta must decide between Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz in the lone striker's role.

Amidst the uncertainty, can City deliver?

Manchester City have dominated English football since Pep Guardiola took charge, and it's worth remembering they also won the Premier League under his predecessors Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrini. Guardiola has furnished the City trophy cabinet with six Premier League titles, two FA Cups, four League Cups, a Club World Cup and the most elusive prize of all, the Champions League.

Despite this glittering success, the spectre of uncertainty hangs over the club. City have been charged with well over 100 rule breaches by the Premier League, but a case that has been pursued for years shows no clear sign of being resolved. We don't know if City will be found guilty of wrongdoing, and we don't know what the punishment would be if they are. Despite his protestations to the contrary, Guardiola continues to be linked with a summer exit, so much so that his former assistant Enzo Maresca has reportedly been sounded out about his availability.

On the field, despite spending hundreds of millions of pounds in a massive refit of the squad, City are short of their best. This week they crashed out of the Champions League, beaten home and away by Real Madrid. In the Premier League, a run of five wins in 12 games has seen the gap between City and the leaders Arsenal swell to nine points, although City have a game in hand and still have the chance to face the Gunners at the Etihad next month.

There is also concern about a steep drop-off in goal production from star striker Erling Haaland. The Norwegian has had another amazing season overall, but he has found the net in just five of his last 19 appearances, and the debate persists regarding his all-round contribution.

James Trafford has been confirmed as the goalkeeper for Sunday's clash, but regular defensive starter Marc Guehi is cup-tied. That isn't the case for his fellow January signing Antoine Semenyo, who is expected to start out wide. Despite his recent slump, Erling Haaland is expected to get the nod ahead of Omar Marmoush in attack.

Back Haaland and Gabriel to resume hostilities

City striker Erling Haaland and Arsenal defender Gabriel have developed a spiky rivalry down the years, and I'm intrigued by the 2/1 on offer for Haaland to foul Gabriel, which you can find in the Sportsbook's Novelty Specials.

Haaland's fouls committed numbers spike when he faces City. In the Norwegian's nine games against Arsenal he has committed 17 fouls at an average of nearly two per game, and Gabriel is likely to be tasked with trying to keep him quiet.

If you want to go in the other direction, you can back Gabriel to foul Haaland at 9/4.

Don't expect fireworks at Wembley

I believe Arsenal are justifiable favourites to lift the trophy, but I can't get involved with backing them to do so at 4/6, as there just isn't enough of a gap between the sides on a one-to-one basis.

Instead, I'll put together an 11/4 Bet Builder, which means you can take advantage of our Bet £10 Get £10 offer.

I'll start with Under 3.5 Goals. As the excellent Lewis Jones stated on our latest episode of Football Only Bettor, 46 of the last 49 domestic and European club matches played at Wembley have seen an Under 3.5 Goals bet land, and this does feel like a huge final psychologically for both sides. I can't see either side taking early risks.

I'll also back Gabriel to have a shot. The Brazilian behemoth is a persistent threat from set plays, and he has had at least one goal attempt in 15 of his last 24 competitive starts for Arsenal.

Finally I'll back City's Antoine Semenyo to have a shot on target. The Ghana international has slotted in seamlessly to the City side since arriving from Bournemouth, and has had a shot on target in ten of his 13 competitive starts for the club.