Assessing Italy’s tortuous road to the 2026 World Cup | OneFootball

Italy’s failure to qualify automatically for the 2026 World Cup inevitably sparked plenty of debate across this once-proud footballing nation.

Losing home and away to Norway consigned Italy to the play-offs and left them facing the prospect of missing out on the tournament for the third consecutive time.

Head coach Gennaro Gattuso inevitably resorted to deflection tactics towards the end of European qualifying, bemoaning the revised system that seemingly favors other continents.

“In my day, the best group runners-up went straight to the World Cup, now the rules have changed,” Gattuso said.

“Italy’s record of six wins? You’d have to ask the people who make the groups and the rules. In 1990 and 1994, there were two African teams, now there are nine. It’s not a controversy, but there are difficulties, and we know it well.

“If we look at South America, where six out of 10 teams go directly to the World Cup and the seventh heads into a play-off with a team from Oceania, that does give you regrets and a certain sadness. That is the disappointment. The system needs to change in Europe.”

Italy cannot blame the systemPutting aside the fact there are some factual inaccuracies in Gattuso’s comments, the 2020 European champions have only themselves to blame for their current situation.

Italy were the top seeds in a relatively easy group, yet failed to get the job done. However, you flower it up, losing to Norway by a combined 7-1 scoreline is unacceptable.

The decision to appoint Gattuso to replace Luciano Spalletti looked questionable when it was announced, and subsequent events have done little to dispel that notion.

Gattuso was a fine player – a combative midfielder who helped AC Milan win the Champions League twice and Italy lift their last World Cup trophy in 2006.

However, his managerial record at club level was hugely underwhelming and Italy’s decision to place him in charge may yet have a catastrophic ending.

“When I heard Gattuso was online it just seemed to demonstrate the giant collapse of Italy,” Italian football journalist Mina Rzouki told the Euro Leagues podcast.

“There were so many clips going around on social media about that Italy team just before they won the World Cup and you are talking about Paolo Maldini, [Fabio] Cannavaro, [Alessandro] Nesta, [Francesco] Totti, [Alessandro] Del Piero and it was just an embarrassment of riches.

“Now when you look at Italy over the last few seasons, even though they won the Euros, there was just a fall – but the one thing you could rely on was that Italy created these great coaches. Yet none of these great coaches were called up or have succeeded.”

Play-off draw offers Italy hopeItaly’s hopes of progressing to the World Cup were boosted after they were handed a relatively favorable draw in the play-offs.

They will host Northern Ireland in the semi-final, with the winners of that game visiting either Wales or Bosnia & Herzegovina in the final.

The last four tie against Northern Ireland should hold little fear for Italy. They suffered defeats at Germany and Slovakia in the group stage and generally don’t travel too well.

Having won seven and drawn three of their previous 11 meetings, Italy have little to fear from a team ranked 69th in the latest FIFA rankings.

On paper, Wales are the biggest threat to Italy. They are ranked 32nd in the world and are generally tough to beat on their own patch.

However, it is worth noting that they have never defeated Bosnia & Herzegovina in four previous attempts. The visitors will fancy their chances of enhancing that record.

Ultimately, given that Italy are currently ranked 12th in the world, they should be able to successfully navigate through the play-offs.

They have lost just twice to Wales in ten previous meetings and once to Bosnia & Herzegovina in six matches. If Italy fail to progress, they have no excuses.

While suggesting that Italy could mount a challenge for the World Cup next summer is a little fanciful, stranger things have happened in football.

They demonstrated their credentials by winning the 2020 European Championship title and can draw inspiration from what they achieved on that occasion.

Aside from Spain and France, none of the other so-called main contenders for the World Cup are significantly better than Italy.

If they safely navigate the play-offs and land a favorable draw next summer, Italy are perfectly capable of making a deep run in the tournament.

Zach Lowy I GIFN