Behind Arsenal, Man City: Opta tips Barcelona an outsider in Champions League this season | OneFootball

Barcelona reached the semi-finals of last season’s UEFA Champions League, falling narrowly to Inter Milan in a dramatic tie.

The Catalans will look to change this season, having strengthened the team in the summer without losing any big stars apart from Inigo Martinez.

But according to the latest Opta tournament predictions for the 2025-26 campaign, the Catalans are not among the top favourites to lift Europe’s most prestigious prize.

Barcelona have an 8.4% chance of winning the UCL

Opta’s data model predicts Liverpool as the leading contenders with a 20.4% chance of winning the trophy. Arsenal follow closely at 16%, while defending champions PSG complete the top three with 12.1%.

Premier League giants Manchester City sit fourth at just 8.4%, the same probability assigned to Barcelona.

Despite their run to the last four last season, Barça’s path is expected to be difficult. Opta gives them a 51.3% chance of making the quarter-finals and just 29.5% of reaching the semis again.

Their likelihood of progressing to the final stands at 16.4%, with only an outside shot at the title.

Barcelona being counted out by data analytics is nothing new, though. At the start of last season, the Catalans were given an outside chance of winning the league title ahead of Real Madrid, and the rest is history.

It must be noted that Barcelona were one of the most imposing teams in the Champions League last season and were rather unlucky not to qualify for the final.

With a far more complete team this time around, Hansi Flick’s men will be looking to not only reach the final but also secure the Champions League title for the first time since 2015.