Breaking Down International Odds for the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers | OneFootball

The qualification stages for the 2026 FIFA World Cup are well underway, and a number of national teams have already secured qualification for the main tournament, which will be held in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

A historic World Cup in several ways, the 2026 iteration will feature 48 national teams, and a chance for debutants to make their mark on the world’s most prestigious international football stage.

When looking at the odds at multiple sportsbooks, several interesting possibilities and dark horses have emerged, allowing punters to win big even before the tournament proper kicks off.

Important Changes and Global Context

The increase in competing teams has brought changes to slots per confederation, the most noticeable being the one guaranteed to Oceania, along with the new playoff berths to extra teams from South America and Asia. Europe has 16 qualifying teams, with Africa set to send 9 or 10 teams to the tournament.

The new format certainly makes the tournament more inclusive and diverse, providing opportunities for new dark horse candidates and nations capable of causing upsets. Conversely, several tournament favorites will benefit from easier pathways to the quarterfinals owing to weak, inexperienced opponents.

Europe – The Usual Suspects and Notable Dark Horses

Looking through the qualification odds for Europe, the usual favorites have the shortest odds. Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, England, and the Netherlands are all favored by the bookmakers to beat the qualifying group stage with little to no difficulties.

However, it is also worth noting that the odds for Italy to top the group against Norway stand at 2.75, which is an attractive opportunity for fans of Italy to pounce on. In contrast, the odds for Spain topping their group are a measly 1.05.

Norway and Serbia emerge as the ones to watch, with Slovakia and Switzerland also poised to put up a fight against the world’s best. The odds for dark horses qualifying hover between 2.00-2.50, primed for opportunistic punters.

Africa – North African Nations Dominate

Similar to Europe, the World Cup qualifying stage for AFC teams has been largely predictable, with North African nations amassing the most amount of points.

It is worth noting that the group stage of the qualification has largely elapsed, with Morocco and Tunisia officially qualifying for the tournament proper.

On the other hand, the odds for Egypt, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Algeria going all the way are rather low and hover between 1.10 and 1.40.

The main surprise of the qualification stage has been Nigeria. The slow start has complicated things for an otherwise favorite of Group C, which is led by South Africa as of this writing.

With a 6-point gap and 2 matches remaining, Nigeria’s best chance of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is by closing the 3-point gap with Benin, who are second-placed.

Asia – 2 Debutants

The Asian qualification groups for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have produced two debutants in the form of Jordan and Uzbekistan, who will join Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Iran at the tournament proper in North America.

It is worth noting that the fourth round of qualification will see Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Indonesia, the UAE, Oman, and Iraq competing for 4 additional spots. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are seen as favorites to win their respective groups, albeit with longer odds above 1.50.

South America – 6 Qualified Teams

With the South American qualifications concluded, 6 teams have secured direct World Cup slots, with favorites Argentina taking top spot, while Brazil underwhelmed.

Among other qualified teams are Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, and Ecuador, with Bolivia securing seventh place and qualifying for the playoff round. If Bolivia qualifies, this will be their first World Cup appearance in 32 years.

North America – 3 Hosts and Potential Debutants

Due to the automatic qualification of co-hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico, the possibility of North America producing more debutants for the 2026 World Cup is extremely high.

Curacao is the most likely candidate for making their debut, currently sitting second in Group B of the third round, trailing Jamaica by 2 points. The odds of Curacao qualifying for the FIFA World Cup currently stand at 1.67, with 3.33 for direct qualification.

Another potential debutant is Suriname, with 4 points after 2 fixtures, topping Group A.

Oceania – New Zealand Secure Qualification

As the only team from Oceania to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, New Zealand will end its 16-year absence from the tournament, with the 2010 FIFA World Cup being its last appearance, exiting the group stage without losing a single match, drawing all three.

What to Look Out For

With a significant portion of the qualification stages already concluded, the European qualifiers and playoff rounds will be the primary focus for both casual viewers, diehard fans, and punters.

Several dark horses in the UEFA qualifying, coupled with intriguing possibilities of debutant North American nations, make for an exciting conclusion of the qualifying stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.