Bundesliga Rückrunde: Eintracht Are Overachieving, Nuri Sahin’s Struggling, Henriksen Is The Kingmaker | OneFootball

After a 21-day Intermezzo, known as the Winterpause, the Bundesliga is back; what can be expected from the second half of 24/25?

For one, Nuri Sahin’s job will be online in January. Few Bundesliga clubs’ situations are more precarious than Borussia Dortmund’s right now; the coming weeks will decide the club’s destiny like seldom before.

Twenty-two kilometres down the road, neighbours VFL Bochum have appointed Dieter Hecking. A highly experienced coach, but is it enough to save the Ruhrpott club? Many pundits predict no.

In contrast, the future of 1. FC Heidenheim’s Frank Schmidt is not at stake even if the club is relegated. Eintracht Frankfurt, though, is on course for one of the best seasons yet. Watch out also for Bo Henriksen’s side Mainz. Henriksen is the man of the hour, and there is lots to look forward to in the second half of the German football season.

VFL Bochum’s new coach, Dieter Hecking, saved Nuremberg from relegation in 2010, won the DFB Pokal with Wolfsburg in 2015, and, most remarkably, achieved an incredible top-tier promotion with Alemannia Aachen in 2006. The sixty-seven-year-old is the fourth manager at the club this season, and he brings bags of experience that the club is really going to need.

What Hecking brings Bochum, the club’s neighbours in Dortmund is precisely missing. Former BVB midfielder Nuri Sahin took over Edin Terzic’s hot seat and was expected to build on the Croatian-German coach’s substantial achievements.

Crunch time for Nuri Sahin

So far this season, the outcome has been very different from what the Schwarz-Gelben faithful expected. The Westfalian club is painfully poised in eighth. As painful as it might seem, the fourteen-point gap to Bayern Munich isn’t the focus. This season is singularly about qualifying for the Champions League, not more.

Nuri may be loved for what he achieved as a player, but Echte Liebe will wear very thin if the former Antalyaspor manager cannot get the team to perform consistently in the second half of the season. The opening gambit against Leverkusen on Friday had its moments, particularly the crowd-inspired fightback in the second half, but even considering the key injuries in defence, the gap to the top in terms of quality looks more like a chasm right now.

The issue? Yes, some players are massively underperforming. Think Felix Nmecha, Emre Can, Gio Reyna, Youssoufa Moukoko, or even Sebastien Haller, the latter both now on loan, taking account of the health scare. Nuri Sahin is simply not getting the most out of the second-most expensive squad in the league. What’s more, the coach is showing a concerning lack of tactical smartness; the appointment of the inexperienced former player as manager is starting to look naive.

Crunch time is coming. Between now and the end of the month, Sahin’s team will be heavily tested. Sahin’s team faces Frankfurt and Bremen, both teams competing for international spots. While Champions League progress looks all but assured after some very good results, from a financial perspective, the club can ill-afford to miss out on the King’s class in Europe. Financial imperatives may force the hand of the decision-makers at the Westfalenstadion.

Bo Henriksen’s FSV Mainz 05 rebellion has only just begun

For some time, Mainz’s season has looked mixed. But then victories against Dortmund, Bayern, and Eintracht Frankfurt followed, and Bo Henriksen’s team started to look like the kingmakers of the German league.

BVB remembers only too well the final game of the 22/23 season—the results against mid-table teams that will once more decide the championship this year. Despite a sensational spirit, Mainz’s squad is too thin to keep up until the end of the season.

However you look at it, Danish coach Bo Henriksen, who led an unfancied Midtjylland side to the 2022 Danish Cup, is an outstanding signing. The South-West German team, which includes one of the German league’s most admired players right now, centre-forward Jonathan Burkhardt, can upset any opponent in 2025.

The relegation battle is the real title fight

At the other end of the table, this season, fans can look forward to a fierce relegation battle with more teams teetering on the edge of the abyss than most. Holstein Kiel’s standing at the bottom of the table is unsurprising, given their limited investment and quality in the squads. The 1911 Meister will be the first to get relegated unless something can be changed in the January transfer window.

Werksklubs, or factory clubs, have never been popular among fans in Germany. The decision-makers at Hoffenheim are showing what many fans have long wanted to hear: that even massive financial backing is no remedy for rash decision-making. Despite the €50m investment, the club from the smallest town in the top tier has slipped into the relegation battle.

The Baden-based club will, however, have nothing to do with the drop. In spite of losing some top players in the summer which have yet to be compensated, and top defensive hand Leonard Maloney may follow, as 23/24 showed there is too much quality and above all fight in the side for the second tier.

Like Union Berlin last season, the Frank Schmidt-coached Heidenheim have poorly looked overwhelmed by the additional burden of European competition and have slipped down the table. While they can focus on the league after exiting the Conference League early, the side will need to look a lot sharper in the second half if they are to avoid second-tier football next season and may yet have to play the relegation play-off in their third season at the top.

Few failed to welcome FC St Pauli back this season. The Millerntor-based club may be most neutral fans’ favourites, but bereft of coach Fabian Hürzeler, who Brighton did well in securing, the Browns and Whites will also be battling to the end of the season.

Despite sound defensive play, the side, including the highly effective former Hull City Australia international Jackson Irvine, needs to find a regular goal scorer fast if they are to stand another chance of another season at the top. No other side has scored less than the twelve they have recorded. The club has been linked to center-forwards Ivan Prtajin (Union Berlin) and Leonardo Rocha (Raków Częstochowa).

Kompany is on course with Munich

Thomas Tuchel’s second season was the first time since 2011 that the Rekordmeister have failed to secure any silverware. Even though they have been spared the worst in injuries, cover may be needed for Centre-back Hiroki Ito in the short term, and a January defensive signing is likely.

Bayern, who have lost only one game this season, against Mainz 05, are once more the team to beat, even if the long-term goalkeeper question will need addressing.

For Bayern, the Leroy Sané question is a big one. He may leave at the end of the season, but he will be collecting silverware on his way. To say that Leroy Sané is a player who polarises opinions would be a bit of an understatement. For some, the former Manchester City winger seems, at times, just too casual. The Essen-born player has undoubtedly earned his place at the top. Available on a free transfer at the end of the season, Sané must prove his worth if he wants to continue his journey in Bavaria.

Back-to-back titles would delight the neutrals:

Xabi Alonso has the skills and the squad to prove that the 23/24 title, which ended the club’s unwanted moniker, Vizekusen, was a one-hit-wonder. However, injuries have impacted the side. In particular, the Rhineland-based side is crucially missing Winger Amine Adili and top striker Victor Boniface.  Center-back Jeanuel Belocian is also expected to be out for the rest of the season.

Whilst the former Liverpool midfielder has the full backing of countryman CEO Fernando del Carro,  the January transfer window may be crucial in securing cover if the Red and Blacks will inspire with back-to-back titles.

Two-time Pokal winners Leipzig may benefit from Jürgen Klopp’s leadership in the multi-club group in the medium term, but the club from the East will need to improve its side if it wants to remain in contention for a highly contested Champions League place. For now, Benjamin Henrichs and striker Yussuf Poulsen are short-term concerns that need addressing.

VfB Stuttgart manager Sebastian Hoeness is one of the brightest players in the German league, and there is little doubt that the five-time champions will be challenging for Europe. A lot will depend on newly-arrived striker Jacob Bruun Larsen to provide backup for Ermedin Demirovic if the team from Baden-Württemberg are to step up a gear and mount a challenge.

Overall prediction

This season will see a change at the top; Bayern Munich will take back the top spot. Dortmund will miss out on a Champions League spot, but not by much.

VfB Stuttgart, Eintracht Frankfurt, RB Leipzig, and SC Freiburg will qualify for Europe. Werder Bremen will be in the mix for seventh place, which may be enough.

Holstein Kiel, St Pauli, and Bochum will face the drop.