Can Benfica secure a play-off spot in the Champions League? Assessing José Mourinho’s key decisions | OneFootball

January has a habit of defining seasons at Benfica, and rarely more so than now. It was in this month in 2014 that Jorge Jesus steadied a wobbling title challenge, and again in 2019 when a mid-season surge under Bruno Lage transformed a drifting campaign into a domestic double.

Just as often, January has arrived with uncertainty, with European exits and ill-timed decisions that have killed off campaigns before spring has arrived.

This time, the stakes are continental. Two Champions League fixtures remain in Benfica’s league-phase schedule, away at Juventus and at home to Real Madrid so the margins are fine for Jose Mourinho’s side.

Mourinho’s Benfica stand at a crossroads. As Águias sit mid-table with their fate still in their own hands, but the room for error has disappeared. The next fortnight will define his tenure at the Estádio da Luz.

Success, largely now down to qualifying for at least the play-off round, buries doubts about his methods and silences talk of Ruben Amorim as his successor. Failure accelerates that conversation and raises questions about whether Benfica made the right choice when they appointed him last year.

It’s a state of affairs that’s proving tough to call, even when viewed through the lens of free bet offers. With just two wins in the Champions League and sitting third in the Primeira Liga, January is already a month being spent playing catch-up.

A win against Napoli set the tone for a potential great escape into the knockouts but it can’t completely overshadow the three consecutive losses against the likes of Chelsea, Newcastle and Bayer Leverkusen that came before it, all without scoring a goal.

The campaign has been underwhelming. Benfica took the points in a difficult away match at Ajax but dropped them in winnable home fixtures against Qarabag and the aforementioned Leverkusen, the classic Mourinho hallmark of not losing rather than dominating. That approach has kept them alive but left them vulnerable.

Now, we assess the key decisions that must be made ahead of the final two games in Europe and see if Benfica have enough to avoid an early exit.

Away at Juventus

The trip to the Allianz Stadium represents Benfica's best chance of collecting three points. Juventus under Luciano Spalletti are in just as much trouble, especially without the services of Dusan Vlahovic for the foreseeable future.

The Old Lady sit just three points ahead of Benfica in 17th position, making this a direct battle for playoff qualification rather than a mismatch against established opposition.

Recent history favours Benfica. They have won four of the last seven meetings between the sides with three draws and no Juventus victories but given the new Champions League format, the form guide can go out the window.

Benfica arrive with confidence after a 2-0 triumph over Napoli that demonstrated their capacity to beat Italian opposition.

Anything less than a victory would be a disappointment. A draw leaves the Real Madrid match as a must-win scenario and Benfica can’t afford to put themselves in that position.

Real Madrid at the Estádio da Luz

The home finale against Real Madrid carries its own tension. Xabi Alonso’s departure has left Álvaro Arbeloa in temporary charge, a coach Mourinho knows well from their Real Madrid days, when the Spanish defender won the 2012 La Liga title with him.

This is where Mourinho’s edge matters. He will be hoping to coax his team to a vintage European performance akin to the psychological battles of the mid-2000s. He knows Arbeloa’s tendencies, understands Madrid’s emotional rhythms and can manipulate the tempo of a match better than almost any manager in Europe. The master will need to get the better of the apprentice.

Madrid in this current period of transition lack the polished cohesion of Carlo Ancelotti’s trophy-winning teams and lean instead on the individual brilliance of their Galacticos.

Kylian Mbappé will be out to finish as the league phase’s top scorer and if Los Blancos are still sitting perilously in seventh, then expect their strongest line-up in Lisbon in order to secure automatic progression to the last 16.

A point here would represent a triumph, given the context. Three points would recast Benfica’s entire European campaign. Either way, the game’s texture, compact early, loosening late, plays directly to Mourinho’s strengths in managing tension and tempo.

Mourinho’s European Mastery

Mourinho’s Champions League DNA remains his sharpest calling card. An away game first where compactness and discipline are rewarded. A high-profile fixture next where experience and game management matter. Opponents he knows, environments he understands, pressure he has thrived under before.

His strengths remain clear. Tactical preparation, in-game adjustments and psychological framing. His risks are equally evident. Over-caution, slow tempo at home and squad fatigue.

He’s won this competition before by navigating exactly these scenarios. That was another era. The question is whether enough of that Mourinho remains in 2026.

Benfica’s path to the play-offs is realistic but narrow. Six points would secure their position comfortably. Four will likely suffice. Anything less leaves them reliant on others.

The next fortnight will define Mourinho’s tenure. Success quiets succession talk and extends his stay. Failure accelerates questions about the future. Benfica’s Champions League fate now rests on decisions only Mourinho can make.