Champions League permutations: What every Premier League team needs to qualify for last 16 | OneFootball

It’s crunch time in the Champions League as all six Premier League teams fight to seal their place in the competition’s last 16 and avoid the ever-perilous knockout play-offs.

Five of England’s contingent go into the final matchday placed in the top eight, with Premier League sides performing across the board throughout the league phase.

Out of that quintet, only Arsenal have confirmed safe passage directly to the last 16, with Mikel Arteta’s table-topping side having won all seven of their European outings this season.

Bayern Munich have also guaranteed qualification, leaving six spaces up for grabs on what promises to be an intense league phase finale, which will see all 18 games kick off simultaneously to ensure maximum drama.

Here are the full permutations for every Premier League team to qualify for the Champions League last 16:

Arsenal

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Arsenal have sealed their place in the last 16 of the Champions League (PA Wire)

Arsenal top the league table with 21 points after winning every Champions League game up to this point, meaning they have already qualified for the last 16. They take on Kazakh side Kairat Almaty, who are bottom of the table on one point, in what is effectively a dead rubber. That’s because Bayern, the only team who can theoretically catch them, are three points behind them and would need a massive goal difference swing to see the Bavarians pip Arsenal to top spot.

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Victory in Marseille has set up Liverpool nicely for the final matchday (PA Wire)

Liverpool are in a strong position after their impressive victory in Marseille last week, with that result pushing them up to fourth place, now level with Real Madrid on 15 points. Victory against Azerbaijani outfit Qarabag will guarantee a top-four finish, while a draw should be enough to finish in the top eight. The Reds will be heavy favourites against significantly weaker opposition, though Qarabag do have something to play for. They are 18th and any result should seal their participation in the play-offs - if they manage to pull off a stunning upset at Anfield, Liverpool’s top-eight fate will be completely out of their hands.

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Tottenham sunk Borussia Dortmund last time out in a desperately-needed boost for Thomas Frank (REUTERS)

The walls are closing in on Thomas Frank but - assuming he doesn’t get sacked beforehand - he could go a step towards repairing his relationship with the fans by delivering a top-eight finish for the Europa League champions. Sandwiching a win over Borussia Dortmund in between dismal league defeats to West Ham and Burnley, Spurs sit fifth and hold a one-point advantage over the mass of eight teams on 13 points. They take on Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday knowing victory will seal their place in the last 16, while a draw may also be enough contingent on results elsewhere going their way.

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Newcastle need a big performance at holders PSG to ensure their place in the top eight (REUTERS)

To the 13-pointers we go, and Newcastle are one of three English teams to be sat on the precarious tally. The Magpies start the day in seventh, above six of the eight teams on 13 points thanks to their superior goal difference of 10, but that will likely go in vain if they fail to get a result away to Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain - who are on identical points and goal difference to Eddie Howe’s side. Simply put, Newcastle will need to match or better the results of the other clubs in that cohort, and hope their goal difference is enough to carry them through to the last 16. Otherwise, the play-offs await.

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Chelsea edged past Pafos last week to keep their top-eight ambitions alive (PA Wire)

Chelsea find themselves in a similar boat to Newcastle, though goal difference is playing less to their advantage. Just inside the top eight with a goal difference of six, they face reigning Serie A champions Napoli on the final matchday, who themselves face a boom or bust scenario. Napoli are at risk of becoming the highest-profile elimination from the league phase and need at least a point to ensure they make the play-offs. Antonio Conte, returning to Stamford Bridge, will therefore be expected to throw everything at the Blues, which could be detrimental to their top-eight pursuit. Just like Newcastle, Chelsea need to match or better the results of the other 13-pointers.

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Manchester City were humbled by Bodo/Glimt to leave their top-eight hopes in the balance (AP)

While also on the “unlucky for some” points tally of 13, last week’s shock defeat at Bodo/Glimt means Manchester City are far from certain for a top-eight finish. In 11th, they are the only English team starting the day outside of the last 16 qualification berths, while their goal difference of four is inferior to most of the 13-pointers. Hosting a Galatasaray side that dispatched Liverpool earlier in the campaign, Pep Guardiola may need to guide his team to a high-scoring win to avoid the play-offs, with a draw likely insufficient.