Chelsea v Manchester City: Back 5/2 Abdukodir Khusanov for a card | OneFootball

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Sunday April 12, 16:30

Chelsea on the brink of unwanted record

Chelsea are trading around 3.3 on the Betfair Exchange and on the face of it, that should be a bet to consider for a team with their talent pool at Stamford Bridge.

But it's hard to make a compelling case to seriously back that price. This is a side running cold in all the wrong areas. Only Leeds and Spurs have picked up fewer points across the last six Premier League games, which tells you everything about where Chelsea are right now in terms of output.

More concerning is the attacking drop-off - back-to-back defeats without scoring. If they fail to find the net again here, it'll be the first time since March 1998 they've lost three in a row without scoring. That's not the kind of historical company you want to be keeping if you are Liam Rosenior.

And now they face a Manchester City side that are doing what Manchester City do at this stage of the season: quietly, relentlessly building momentum as they try to chase down Arsenal. They're unbeaten in their last eight league matches and have lost just once in 18 since late November. That's title-winning form, even if the table doesn't look that way.

The 2.2 on City looks fair, possibly even a shade generous when you factor in Chelsea's current trajectory.

English Premier League: Chelsea v Man City (Match Odds)

Sunday 12 April, 4.30pm

Chelsea

Back 3.3

Lay 3.35

Man City

Back 2.2

Lay 2.24

The Draw

Back 4

Lay 4.1

A low scoring affair on the cards?

The market has absolutely latched onto the idea of goals here. Over 2.5 is trading as a strong favourite at 1.59 on the Betfair Exchange, which tells you the expectation is for a typically open, attack-heavy game involving Manchester City. But when you dig into the numbers, especially away from home, the story isn't quite as explosive.

City's Premier League matches on the road are averaging just 2.7 goals per game this season. That's already lower than you might expect for a Pep Guardiola side, but strip out that chaotic 5-4 at Fulham and the figure drops to 2.29. That's a significant adjustment and brings the unders line firmly into play.

In fact, seven of their 15 away league games have gone under 2.5 goals - nearly a 50% hit rate for under backers. That's on offer at 2.6. More tellingly, 12 of those 15 have stayed under the 3.5 line, which is currently sitting at 1.64. That's a strong trend and speaks to how City manage games on the road when winning is all that matters: control first, incision second.

English Premier League: Chelsea v Man City (Over/Under 2.5 Goals)

Sunday 12 April, 4.30pm

Khusanov v Joao Pedro could be a cards party

Ever since Pep Guardiola started talking up Abdukodir Khusanov, you got the sense this wasn't just hype. And fair play, the kid has backed it up. He's come into the Manchester City side and looked completely at home, starting the last six games and showing that nice blend of aggression and anticipation that top-level defenders need.

But - and it's an important but - there's still a raw edge to his game.

Khusanov plays on the front foot. When he engages, he really engages. That's great when you're winning duels early, but against the wrong type of opponent it can drag you into trouble. And this looks like one of those matchups.

João Pedro is exactly the kind of striker who can expose that eagerness. His movement is sharp, but more importantly, he's clever. He initiates contact, buys fouls and puts defenders in awkward body positions. Since the start of last season, he's drawn 19 yellow cards from opponents - only six players in the league have won more.

So when you line that up with Khusanov's approach, you can see where this is going. If he dives in half a second too early or gets caught the wrong side, João Pedro will make sure the referee has a decision to make.

The recent numbers back it up, too. Khusanov has been booked in two of his last three starts, which suggests referees are starting to clock onto that combative style.