Coppa Italia final preview: AC Milan vs. Bologna – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·13 Mei 2025

Coppa Italia final preview: AC Milan vs. Bologna – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan and Bologna will contest the final of the 2024-25 edition of the Coppa Italia on Wednesday night at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

The two teams only faced each other on Friday in Serie A, a game that Milan came from behind to win, scoring three times in the last 18 minutes to secure a 3-1 victory and severely dent Bologna’s hopes of a top four finish.

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Sergio Conceicao insisted in his pre-final press conference that what happened a few days ago will have very little impact on the upcoming game in the capital, with it being a one-off fixture and with a trophy on the line.

Game date: Wednesday, May 14 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST) Venue: Stadio Olimpico Referee: Maurizio Mariani (VAR: Meraviglia)

Team news

What seems to have given Milan life in this late-season resurgence is the switch to playing a three-man defence, given that the record reads five wins in six with 14 goals scored and just three conceded since making the change.

As mentioned above, the Rossoneri’s most recent victory was against their opponents in the final, and this will surely inspire confidence in the team. It was another comeback too, their ninth under Conceicao, with 22 points having come from losing positions.

There is nothing but good news on the injury front, too. Warren Bondo and Riccardo Sottil have travelled with the team which strongly implies there is a chance that both end up making the bench, while Youssouf Fofana is back after a foot problem.

Perhaps the biggest news is the return of Rafael Leao. The Portuguese winger was absent on Friday night because he had to serve a one-match ban having accumulated too many yellow cards, and he scored in the away game against Bologna a few months ago.

There is one major selection doubt for Sergio Conceicao to resolve: who will start as the striker between Santiago Gimenez and Luka Jovic. The Mexican is in much better form than he was a couple of weeks ago, having scored twice against Bologna in the league off the bench, with three goals in his last three games and an assist to his name as well.

However, the Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against Inter showed what Jovic can do from minute one as well, as he scored a match-winning double in that. Essentially, Milan have a group of ‘super sub’ strikers but no obvious starters, so Conceicao has 24 hours to make a big call.

At present, it seems as though the coach will stick with Mike Maignan in goal then Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic as the three-man defence. Alex Jimenez and Theo Hernandez remain the wing-backs.

Tijjani Reijnders should join up with Fofana in the midfield double pivot, then Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao should operate either side of Jovic.

UPDATE: Bondo trained individually on Tuesday and has not recovered. Fofana has recovered in time.

Probable Milan XI (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Jovic, Leao.

The opponents

We recapped the summer moves that Bologna made during our preview of the game at the Stadio Renato dall’Ara earlier this year, and the preview for Friday’s league game brought you up to speed on their form leading to the present.

Bologna have had a bit of a wobble, with just two wins coming in their last seven games but only two defeats as well. The wins were over Inter and Empoli (semi-final second leg), while the defeats came to Atalanta and of course Milan.

The mission for Vincenzo Italiano is to go from bridesmaid to the one celebrating. He never won a cup while a player (only Serie B twice), while with Fiorentina he lost in the final of the Coppa Italia in 2022-23, the Conference League the same season also last season.

The line-up that Italiano fielded for the Serie A contest featured the likes of Martin Erlic, Nikola Moro, Tommaso Pobega and Benjamin Dominguez. While Sam Beukema, Remo Freuler and Riccardo Orsolini were among the usuals to start, it did feel like the Bologna coach was holding something back for the final.

Dan Ndoye netted a late winner when Bologna met Milan at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara and he should be back from injury, as should right-back Emil Holm who will compete for a starting spot with veteran Lorenzo De Silvestri and ex-Rossoneri captain Davide Calabria. Erlic, however, will miss out.

Italiano still has some in terms of selections it seems, but Skorupski is sure to start in goal just as Beukema and Lucumi will be in the centre of defence. Juan Miranda is also expected to be the left-back.

Reports suggest Lewis Ferguson will return to midfield alongside Remo Freuler, then the trio of Orsolini-Odgaard-Ndoye behind Dallinga, currently favoured over Castro to lead the attack.

Predicted Bologna XI (4-2-3-1): Skorupski; Calabria, Beukema, Lucumi, Miranda; Freuler, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Dominguez; Dallinga.

Photo by Simone Arveda/Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images

Head to head

Milan have played 188 matches against Bologna across all competitions with 88 wins, 47 draws and 53 defeats. This season, things have been balanced and it has been a tale of two comebacks.

In the Serie A fixture meeting earlier this season, Milan led through Rafael Leao then collapsed in the second half to lose 2-1. Santiago Castro was on hand to equalise from close range after a free-kick found its way to him, then in the closing stages Ndoye fired in a cross.

On Friday, it was Bologna’s turn to throw away a lead that Orsolini had given them. Santiago Gimenez netted twice off the bench either side of a Christian Pulisic goal as the Diavolo ran out 3-1 winners.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan and Bologna will face each other in the Coppa Italia for the first time since the second leg of the quarter-finals on 13 December 1995 (29 years and 153 days before this match): in that case the match ended 1-1 (as in the first leg) with an own goal by Franco Baresi and the equalising goal from a penalty kick by Dejan Savicevic – it was the Emilians who advanced thanks to an 8-7 victory on penalties.

➤ The two teams will face each other in more than two seasonal matches across all competitions for the first time since 1976/77: on that occasion there were four matches between the two teams (two in Serie A and two in the Coppa Italia) and at the end of the season the Rossoneri, then led by Nereo Rocco, won the fourth national cup in their history.

➤ Bologna, who have won all four of their games in this Coppa Italia Frecciarossa with an aggregate score of 10-1, will play a final in any competition for the first time since the two-legged 2001/02 Intertoto Cup final against Fulham, with Francesco Guidolin on the bench – a victory for the English side in that case, who won the return leg 3-1 after a 2-2 draw in the first leg.

➤ The last triumph of the rossoblù in a final, however, dates back to 1997/98, also in that case in the Intertoto Cup: 1-0 in the first leg and 2-0 in the return leg, with Carlo Mazzone as coach.

➤ Overall, this final features two of the three best attacks of this edition of the Coppa Italia Frecciarossa: 13 goals for Milan and 10 for Bologna (on par with Empoli but with two matches played less than the Tuscans).

➤ Furthermore, Bologna (59) and Milan (48) are the two teams that have attempted the most shots since the round of 16 of this edition of the Coppa Italia. Despite having attempted over 10 fewer shots than the rossoblù, the rossoneri have scored three more goals (13 against 10), recording the best conversion rate in the competition in the period (27%, a good 10 percentage points more than their opponents today).

➤ Tijjani Reijnders has scored two goals in four appearances in this edition of the Coppa Italia; the last Rossoneri midfielder to score more goals in a single edition of the tournament was Manuel Rui Costa (three goals in 2005/06). Furthermore, the 1998-born player made his debut in an official match with the Milan jersey against Bologna, on 21 August 2023 in Serie A.

➤ Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic (six) has scored more goals than Rafael Leão (five, like Filippo Inzaghi) in the last 20 seasons in the Coppa Italia with the Milan jersey. The Portuguese has already been involved in five goals against Bologna in all competitions, thanks to three goals and two assists, all in Serie A.

➤ Tammy Abraham has scored four goals in this Coppa Italia and is the player with the most goals scored for Milan in the tournament in any of the last 20 seasons.

➤ This match will see two of the three defenders who have set up their teammates for shots most often in Serie A 2024/25: Juan Miranda (54) and Theo Hernández (47) – behind Aarón Martín 60. In particular, the Spanish winger is second only to Giovanni Di Lorenzo (37) for the number of chances created from open play (35) and is first for successful crosses from open play (32) in the current Italian top division.

➤ Thijs Dallinga has already scored three goals in this edition of the Coppa Italia and no Bologna player has done better in a single edition of the tournament in the last 20 seasons.

➤ Davide Calabria played 272 games and scored 10 goals in his career with the Milan shirt in all competitions, between May 2015 and last January. The full-back won the Italian Super Cup twice and a Scudetto with the Milan shirt. Tommaso Pobega also made 43 appearances and scored three goals with the Milan shirt in all competitions, between 2022 and last championship.

➤ Since 1929/30, Sérgio Conceição could become only the fifth Milan coach to win both of his first two finals at the helm of the Rossoneri, after Arrigo Sacchi, Carlo Ancelotti, Cesare Maldini and Nereo Rocco. Furthermore, the last coach of the Diavolo to win at least two finals in a row was Carlo Ancelotti between May and December 2007.

➤ Vincenzo Italiano, on the other hand, could become only the third coach capable of winning an Italian Cup with Bologna after Edmondo Fabbri in 1969/70 and Bruno Pesaola in 1973/74.

Ones to watch

To pick one player per department for Milan, it feels like Rafael Leao will be the main threat for Milan going forward. He netted against Bologna earlier in the season, capping a swift counter-attack, and will have a bit more in the tank after sitting out Friday’s game.

In midfield Reijnders is the obvious star given he has 15 goals this season, but it is Fofana who must command the centre with his physicality and work in the non-possession phase, because the midfield battle could be crucial.

Then, Pavlovic will have to do a better job marking Bologna’s main threat Orsolini than he did at San Siro. The winger has 19 goal contributions in 37 games across all competitions and will look to add to his tally of two goals against Milan, a team he has never beaten in his career.

Photos by Simone Arveda/Image Photo Agency/Getty Images

Ndoye will operate in the trio behind the striker and his winner against the Rossoneri at the Dall’Ara demonstrated the threat he poses. Ferguson will return to midfield alongside Freuler, aiming to provide a dam in front of the back four but also some creativity.

If Calabria were to get the nod at right-back then the story writes itself, but it is the centre-back pairing of Lucumi and Beukema that must remain attentive and sharp given how Milan have attacked more centrally with the 3-4-3.

Prediction

Everything goes out of the window for a final including recent form. Forget Friday’s comeback win, this is a new game and it will be a very tight and tense affair. Given what is on the line for both teams, in terms of Coppa Italia droughts and the prospect of European football, we see this going the distance.

Milan 1-1 Bologna (Milan on penalties)