Could 2026 Be The Year For A Shock Winner of the World Cup? | OneFootball

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is approaching the business end of the competition, with the champions crowned at the MetLife Stadium in just over two weeks.

A stunning summer of sport has already seen some shock results, with Paraguay’s recent victory over Germany, and Cape Verde’s valiant draws against Spain and Uruguay being among the standout results. However, data from OffshoreSportsbooks.com shows that the markets still have the familiar names toward the top of the World Cup winner odds, with France and England already through to the round of 16.

But, given the climate in North America, and the formation of the brackets, a shock first-time winner of the competition may not be the most unlikely outcome when the dust settles in New Jersey on July 19.

Wide-Open Tournaments Create Unpredictability

The chaotic group stage has added to the unpredictability at the World Cup this summer, with fancied nations dropping into unexpected halves of the draw and other teams failing to reach the standards expected.

This could be most damaging to the chances of Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal, who had been expected to top Group K, but ultimately could only finish as the runners-up. Therefore, teams that were perceived to have more challenging routes through the knockout stage have now seen the tournament open up.

Of course, any route to the final will still likely require an outsider to overcome one of the top four ranked nations in the competition.

Co-Hosts’ All in Contention

The measure of a good World Cup largely revolves around how the hosts perform, and to this point, all three 2026 co-hosts have exceeded expectations. But no host nation has won the tournament since France in 1998.

Canada look like the weakest of the three, and their journey could end in the round of 16 stage against Morocco.

Despite that, Jesse Marsch’s side have enjoyed their best-ever showing at the World Cup, recording a first win and reaching the knockout rounds for the first time. Mexico and the USA could have more realistic hopes of going further, with the latter potentially being on a collision course with Spain or Portugal.

Mauricio Pochettino’s approach of galvanizing the nation to get behind the team has worked to incredible effect, and the fact that the U.S. will play all remaining potential fixtures on home turf is a major positive. Mexico’s record on home soil has been dominant, but a showdown with England in the round of 16 will be their toughest challenge.

Meanwhile, a potential victory over the Three Lions will see Mexico play any potential quarterfinal, semi-final, or final on U.S. soil; losing their home advantage.

Colombia The Eye-Catcher

If there is a shrewd play at this point of the World Cup, it could come in the form of Colombia. The South American nation defied expectations to top Group K, meaning that they have dropped into the slightly easier bracket during the knockout stage.

La Sele started the tournament as a general 50/1 chance, and they have been halved in price to 20/1 since the conclusion to the opening round. Nestor Lorenzo’s side have the traits to go far, with a defensive solidity seeing them keep clean sheets in two of their three matches.

Meanwhile, they boast one of the most exciting forward lines, headed by Luis Diaz, who has already scored 28 goals in 59 appearances for club and country in 2025-26. Colombia will be widely expected to overcome Ghana in the round of 32, and they will be favored for a potential showdown with either Switzerland or Algeria in the round of 16.

A bigger test could come in the quarterfinals against Argentina, but they avoided defeat in both encounters with the reigning champions in qualification. La Sele’s progression this summer makes them hard to ignore, and they look like one of the most well balanced teams in the competition.

France Still The Team To Beat

Only eight nations have won the World Cup in 96 years, meaning that history still suggests that a repeat victor is likely in North America this summer. France have been the standout team since the opening round, and they have only improved as the tournament has progressed.

Didier Deschamps has an embarrassment of riches in the final third at his disposal, with Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, and Bradley Barcola already making their mark in the States. With so much offensive quality, it is easy to overlook any potential chink in the French defence or midfield, as they have more than enough ability to go toe-to-toe with any rival and outscore them.

France remain the team to beat according to most, but one shock result could still blow the tournament wide open.