Crystal Palace v Tottenham: Back Spurs to strike and Djed Spence to shoot | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Lewis Jones makes a case to back Spurs

Lewis Jones likes the look of an away win when Tottenham travel to Crystal Palace on Sunday, with a shots bet to throw into the mix too...

Crystal Palace v TottenhamSunday 28 December, 16:30 kick-offLive on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

Big opportunity for Spurs to ignite home form

Crystal Palace's defence is creaking under the stress of the fixture list.

It's now 10 goals conceded in their last four games across all competitions. Before that, over the previous 12 matches they'd only shipped eight goals in total. The squad has been stretched beyond its limits and results are now suffering as such.

Chris Richards (foot), Daniel Munoz (knee), Daichi Kamada (hamstring), Ismaila Sarr (international duty) and Cheick Doucoure (knee) are all missing for Sunday's clash. Oliver Glasner has sent out many warnings regarding the struggles this overachieving Palace side would face once the fixtures and injuries stacked up.

The loss of Munoz down the Palace is hurting their structure with and without the ball. Palace have subsequently lost three of their last five Premier League games having lost just two of the previous 18.

So, this should be a fantastic opportunity for Spurs to head to Selhurst Park then?

The markets don't agree. Spurs are 3.5 outsiders on the Betfair Exchange with Palace at 2.35. It's not the first time this season where the oddsmakers have left Spurs friendless. They're no fans of this Thomas Frank regime.

However, Spurs have had an eight-day break since their last game - their longest gap between games this season. Frank is a process focused, hands-on-coach that needs training time to implement his ideas - something he's not had the luxury of this season.

And although Frank's team have been one of the most impotent teams in the Premier League this season from an attacking perspective, there is quality in that forward line to feast on a Palace defensive process that is offering up more gifts than usual. I'm happy to play the away win.

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Spend a penny on Spence shots line

Player shot markets can be about match-ups rather than reputation, and this one ticks a lot of quiet boxes. Djed Spence isn't a player most people instinctively associate with shooting output, but context matters. He's recorded at least one shot in each of his last four appearances now playing at left-back, which already tells us his role is giving him licence to step into advanced areas.

Spence is operating on the left side, which naturally alters his shooting profile. Playing on his "wrong" side encourages him to drive inside onto his stronger right foot, rather than hugging the touchline and crossing early. That movement alone increases the probability of shots around the edge of the box - exactly where low-volume shooters tend to pick up attempts.

Crystal Palace missing Munoz is another important piece of the puzzle. Munoz is their most aggressive and physically dominant wide defender, and without him Palace lose a lot of control in wide duels. That absence should give Spence more freedom to advance and less resistance when he steps into central areas.

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