Derby County: Mel Morris could’ve struck £40m Rams windfall | OneFootball

Derby County have made many transfer mistakes, including missing out on £40 million where Brentford took advantage instead...

For clubs like Derby County, the margins between success and stagnation have often come down to decisions made off the pitch as much as on it — and Mel Morris did not always get that right financially.

It's fair to say, during Mel Morris’ ownership, there was no shortage of ambition. There was heavy investment aimed at forcing a long-awaited return to the Premier League, having not played in the top flight since 2008.

For a club of their size, it has been poor to say the least. Yet, they came close. And yet, as is so often the case in football, one decision in the transfer market can go ahead and shape years and years after it — both positively and negatively.

At one stage, Derby had the opportunity to sign a prolific lower-league striker who was beginning to attract serious attention for his goalscoring exploits. The price tag, while not insignificant, was ultimately deemed too steep by those at Pride Park. Instead of pushing the deal through, the Rams opted to look elsewhere.

They believed better value could be found or that the risk outweighed the reward. Another Championship club saw things differently. They were willing to take that gamble, backing the striker’s trajectory and trusting that his output would translate at a higher level. It proved to be a transformative call and Derby missed out.

Derby County opted not to sign Ivan Toney but Brentford swooped instead

After Brentford sold Ollie Watkins, they replaced him with Ivan Toney. In the end, it was one that would not only deliver promotion but also generate a staggering financial return down the line for the Bees.

The centre-forward, of course, was signed from Peterborough United. Alongside Brentford, Posh are arguably the club with the best hit rate with strikers in the last few decades. Toney joined a long list of successes and became the focal point of a side that would soon break into the Premier League.

His goals powered Brentford’s rise immediately, bagging 31 in 45 games to achieve promotion in his first campaign. He went from playing in League One to the Premier League in just two seasons. His development into a top-flight striker eventually culminated in a deal worth around £40 million to Saudi Arabia (BBC).

For Derby, the what-if is impossible to ignore. At a time when they were consistently knocking on the door of promotion, a striker of Toney’s calibre could have easily been the missing piece. Not only might he have fired them to the Premier League but he also represented a major financial asset in the making.

Instead, Derby's reluctance to meet the asking price looks, in hindsight, like a costly misstep. Per a report from The Athletic ahead of the January transfer window in 2019/20, Derby were keen to sign him but "the two parties remain quite far apart in terms of valuation, making any deal unlikely".

The club continued to spend heavily in other areas, often without the same level of return, while their promotion push gradually lost momentum. Financial issues would later unravel much of Morris’ project, making missed opportunities like Toney even more significant as they dropped into League One.

Derby County's loss was Brentford's major gain

In contrast, despite being a smaller club historically, Brentford’s model of smart recruitment and calculated risk-taking paid off spectacularly after many years of building by selling assets and reinvesting. They identified potential, acted decisively, and were ultimately rewarded both on and off the pitch.

They had Toney for three seasons in the Premier League before he departed for Al-Ahli in the Saudi Pro League. They won on the pitch but also on the balance sheet. He scored 33 and assisted 10 in 48 Championship appearances for Brentford, before bagging 36 and assisting 11 in 83 Premier League games as well.

Derby have had decent strikers since, but none on this level. For them, it serves as a reminder of how fine the margins can be. A single transfer decision, and one that may have seemed overly expensive at the time, could have altered the club’s trajectory entirely.

Instead, it stands as a symbol of what might have been for them: potentially a £40 million windfall, an almost certain return to the top flight, and a very different recent history for the Rams over the last half-decade.