Derby County v Luton Town: Go low on goals in nervy and tight affair | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Bloomfield's Hatters will desperate not to lose at Derby on Good Friday

Ryan Deeney previews a huge bottom of the table EFL Championship clash between Derby County and Luton Town at Pride Park on Good Friday...

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Derby County v Luton TownFriday 18th April, 12:30Live on Sky Sports

Has change come for the better? It might not matter

Managerial changes have once again been the key story towards the bottom of the EFL Championship with Derby County and Luton Town no different.

Saturday's hosts pulled off quite the coup in attracting John Eustace from then play-off contenders Blackburn Rovers and it's had a positive effect, with the Rams a mid-table side since his arrival.

It hasn't quite panned out so well for Matt Bloomfield whose Hatters have recorded the lowest points total since his arrival in mid-January. But there has been steady improvement of late.

Their respective form will matter little with a victory here: Derby (21st) could go four points clear of the dropzone with three to play while a win for Luton (23rd) will move them level on points with Derby. All to play for then.

Eustace not useless

The targeted approach of Eustace has proven a positive one.

It could scarcely have started worse, his side losing their first three without scoring a goal. However, the quality of his management has been matched by an improvement in both boxes as they rectify their underperformance at both ends under previous boss Paul Warne.

His team have collected 14 points from their last seven outings, conceding two or more in just two of their last nine league matches and scoring two or more in five of their last seven. Confidence has risen.

However, they have created more than 1xG in just three of Eustace's 10 matches in charge and they've also conceded more than 1xG in just three of those games too. While their has been improvement in confidence, it's not matched by the quality of chances.

Hatters starting to Bloom

Bloomfield is trying to follow a similar approach in his bid to keep Luton in the Championship and it is starting to pay dividends: a run of three points in his first eight matches in charge has been followed 12 in the next eight.

That improvement extends to their work on the road. Luton had conceded two or more goals in 13 of their first 18 matches away from home this season and it was arguably what cost Rob Edwards his job.

But they have faced three fellow relegation candidates in their last three and conceded a combined 1.8xG. In fact, they have conceded more than 0.7xG in just two of their last eight matches overall - and they came against Leeds United and Burnley.

The Hatters do continue to have issues going forward. Luton have scored more than once in just two of Bloomfield's 16 league matches and created more than 1xG in just one of their last nine - vs Middlesbrough at home.

It means that, while both sides have showcased improved form and underlying numbers, their qualities are in their defensive work and that will likely prove pivotal in what should be a tight, nervy affair between two sides that don't create much and will be desperate not to lose as much as they want to win.

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