Don’t trust any forecast: Bayern prove experts wrong | OneFootball

The quarter-finals of the Champions League are over and four teams are still playing for the European crown. FC Bayern is one of these teams – a fact that is quite surprising when measured against a forecast made at the start of the season

Admittedly, making predictions based on statistics is always a nice gimmick, but it doesn’t always have to be true. If you look back to the start of the season and an Opta forecast, this is confirmed quite clearly once again

Back then, a prediction was made as to who had the best chance of winning the Champions League title. At the top of the list was Liverpool FC, who topped the list with a 20.4 per cent probability. No wonder, as the Reds had just won the championship in England and invested a lot of money in players such as Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike

Bayern not considered a hot title contender before the season

Arsenal were also highly rated. The Gunners also had a good summer of transfers and even seemed to be able to ensure that the prediction (16%) was given a certain boost in the first few weeks of the season. And the Gunners are still in the mix, albeit in a rather weak state at the moment. PSG, the defending champions, were placed third and the French top club currently seems to have some of the best prospects

photo: Getty Images

It is interesting to note that FC Bayern were not far ahead in this prediction. Bayern were only ranked eighth behind Manchester City, Barcelona, Chelsea and Real Madrid, just ahead of Inter and, curiously, Newcastle United, who made it into the top 10, ahead of Atletico. And the Colchoneros are in the semi-finals, where they will play Arsenal

This shows impressively that a lot can change in the course of a season, the momentum can often shift back and forth. Meanwhile, the experts agree that the duel between PSG and Bayern is the anticipated final. Unlike it seemed before the season.