England must beware surging Sweden: this will not be an easy quarter-final | Emma Hayes | OneFootball

England’s 4-0 win against Sweden in their Euro 2022 semi-final, with that iconic Alessia Russo backheel and the sound of Sweet Caroline ringing around Bramall Lane, will be etched into many Swedish heads when the two teams meet on Thursday. And England must not underestimate that feeling for the Swedes.

It was a humiliating defeat for Peter Gerhardsson’s team but they are in a much better place now than three years ago. They have really impressed in this competition so far and they are on a 15-game unbeaten run that has lasted just over a year.

There is a danger of England thinking: “Oh, we’ve beaten this lot in the last Euros.” As a coach I always worry about a wounded team and I think Sweden are that, and I can say this categorically: Swedish players are the most tactical players I’ve coached, the most studious players, the most team‑oriented players, and they leave their ego at the door. For those reasons, they’re a threat to every team, and they’re a big threat to England in this fantastic quarter-final in Zurich.

When I look at my own analysis, and I look at individuals, if you take the top 150 players in the world, of the teams in this tournament, Sweden would rank as the seventh best, but they are much stronger as a sum of their parts, as a team. Before their last game against Germany, they were ranked as fourth favourites to win the title, so this is a group that have “team” at the centre of everything they do. They’ll be highly tactical and organised out of possession.

Their midfielder Kosovare Asllani has been exceptional and so has Filippa Angeldal. In Nathalie Björn they have a leader at the back who is competent in possession but also really good at running a defensive line. The midfielder Johanna Rytting Kaneryd has been playing well and was particularly impressive against Poland. So I think this is a tougher test for England than it would have been against Germany – not because I don’t rate Germany – I think they are wonderful going forward – but I think they’re so vulnerable defensively, whereas Sweden are stingy as hell in defence. Don’t think: “Oh, good, we’ve avoided Germany.” No, this is a game nobody would take lightly.

As a coach, England are the better team and they are the favourites but they’re playing against a Sweden team with far greater organisation than England faced against Wales or the Netherlands, and the things that have hurt the holders, the physical pace and power of France, are threats that Sweden pose too in transitional moments.

Since the last European Championship, Sweden have also brought through the right players and they’ve found another real player in Smilla Holmberg, the right-back. I think she’s got everything to go the whole way. It is Gerhardsson’s final tournament with the team but there’s a consistency in his setup. He’s worked with his strongest eight or nine players for a period of time so there’s a real understanding between them, he’s calm and consistent in his approach, and I think he will have learned a lot from those failures in 2022.

He’s not a big risk-taker. I could very much see Sweden set up in an organised block but it’ll be interesting to see how low they sit. Will they really just absorb pressure and allow England to have the ball? On Saturday, Sweden beat the Germany press and got up against a backline which wasn’t the quickest. It is similar with England. Sarina Wiegman’s side will be very aggressive with lots of players up high, very aggressive in the counterpress, and if Sweden solve this situation like France did, then I think you’re going to see similarly tough moments for England to defend.

But it will be interesting to see what Sweden have learned because they play in a really compact 4-4-2 and if you don’t get those distances right England will pick you off in the pockets. Especially Lauren James. When she is in the mood she was in against Wales, and she’s in “that place”, she’s enjoying her football, we all know she’s one of the best players in the world. She’s been brilliant.

Also, this is the best place I’ve ever seen Ella Toone in, for England. She’s been hugely impactful for the team. She is exploiting the spaces between the full-backs and the centre-backs, and those runs from deep are really helping England. I think she’s playing with the bit between her teeth. She’s got a bit of a chip in her performance, and I like that side of Ella Toone. She seems more mature, focused and like someone who obviously has a natural telepathy with Alessia Russo. You can see how much they care for each other as friends, but also how they know each other’s game inside out. That’s really helpful because maybe Russo is taking up so much attention from defenders and giving a bit more space for Ella.

At the opposite end of the pitch, England have to be wary of Stina Blackstenius. She was a nightmare to play against. In fact, when I was the Chelsea manager, we were always grateful when she wasn’t in the starting lineup for Arsenal. She makes it that much harder for you as a team to be so high up the pitch, because of her channel runs. She’s also improved in the little movements, to stay onside.

I always thought she was a player that drifted offside a lot but I think she’s brought a lot of what we call double movements into her game – ie, lots of running across a line onside – and she’s got better at holding those runs to stay onside. And she’s been clinical. I think she’s at her best level yet. I always rated her decisiveness and being clinical – she’s got everything in her locker. She’s good if you’ve got balls coming into the box, she’s good at running in behind and she now looks a more complete player.

Whoever wins this quarter-final will be the favourites for their semi‑final and should be expected to make the final, but football isn’t that straightforward. What is important to say is that the quality of the quarter-finalists compared with Euro 2022 is so much higher. Italy’s performance against Spain in the group stage showed that finally years of work on their domestic league is bearing fruit. And France, phwoar, it’ll take a lot to beat France. I can’t wait to watch them against Germany and the other match-ups.

Header image: [Photograph: Paul Childs/Action Images/Reuters]