England vs. Argentina: England won’t have a better chance | OneFootball

English football is obsessed with 1966: the only time England won the World Cup and the only time they have reached a final. They won’t have a better chance then when they come up against Argentina on Wednesday.

There are ghosts everywhere between these two sides. Maradona’s Hand of God in 1986, the Falklands War, Michael Owen in 1998, David Beckham’s red card shortly after, and his atonement four years later from the penalty spot. It goes on, and that’s before you even get to Lionel Messi.

Messi’s tournament

Putting conspiracy theories about FIFA and referees and Argentina’s progress so far this competition aside, it’s been Messi’s tournament.

Yes, he might walk 47% of the time he’s on the pitch but he comes alive in the key moments. Golden boot leader (ahead of the France/Spain semi-final) and he chips in with assists.

He’s has 33 shots and created 21 chances. He could not have wished for a better impact in his final World Cup.

Yet Argentina have not been that good. They have yet to keep a clean sheet in the knockout stages and have let in goals to the likes of Cape Verde. Against Egypt they were down 2-0 going in the final 10 minutes. They’ve been dragged to extra time against teams they should be beating comfortably. The astonishing turnaround to win 3-2 must be attributed  as much to Egypt’s tactical and mental collapse as Argentina’s brilliance.

Against Switzerland, they only got on top after the controversial sending off of Embolo and still needed 120 minutes to wrap it up. You cannot deny they think like champions. Cool and calm, they never know when the game is up. They have hugely talented players, many of whom were there four years ago to lift the trophy.

Yet they have not impressed and in a high energy game – and the semi-final will be played in an air conditioned Atlanta – they struggle. Fifa’s statistics show Argentina are 10th for sprinting, and dead last (that’s 48th out of 48) for average speed at which players move. Messi’s walking is certain to have impacted these stats.

This is where England have to take advantage.

England’s pace and power

Jude Bellingham ranks second for most sprints and his charging runs from deep were critical in the victories over Norway and Mexico. Argentina can be susceptible down the flanks and England have pace and power on the wings, regardless of who is starting and who is finishing.

Against Argentina’s ageing squad, Thomas Tuchel has options all over the pitch and on the bench to out power their opponents. Tuchel was furious that his side lacked the high-tempo approach in the quarter finals against Norway (the 100 degree heat and humidity might have been a factor).

Bellingham, Rice and Anderson will run and run, tackle and tackle. Against Paredes, De Paul and Fernández they will fancy their chances. Equally, if Argentina have an extra man there in Mac Allister and choose to flood the central areas, as they did against the Swiss, they are left exposed out wide.

Width is key for England

This is where Anthony Gordon comes in. As England’s most effective wide man this tournament, he will fancy his chances against full back Molina, who looked shaky against Switzlerland.

Barcelona new boy Gordon came to life against Mexico and carried that form into the Norway quarter final, carrying out eight dribbles and winning seven duals. His slide rule assists for Kane against Mexico and Bellingham against Norway provided an extra dimension for England’s attack.

On the other side, Tagliafico hasn’t had the best tournament either, and if Saka is fit there is opportunity there. Tuchel might well turn to Morgan Rogers to freshen up his starting line up out wide as he deals with fatigue and injuries.

In the middle, Martinez and Romero make a formidable pairing and Harry Kane will have his work cut out. But they like to attack and push forward, leaving gaps in behind for third man runners. And there’s no one better at this World Cup at that than Bellingham.

While the centre halves will head balls away for fun, Argentina’s zonal marking leaves opportunity if Declan Rice can get his set piece delivery right.

Tight, but England are favourites

Tuchel’s squad depth is undoubtedly a key factor in England being slight favourites, with an ability to impact the game anywhere on the pitch, or change tactics and formations, as he has done several times already this World Cup. The resilience shown against Mexico and Norway will stand them in good stead against the current holders, who have the big game experience and have shown they know how to win games late.

Messi is in great form but England dealt comfortably with Haaland and will have a plan for the Argentine. It may not be as simple as Stop Messi, Stop Argentina, but England have a great chance of adding another win to this famous footballing rivalry.