Everton’s five clean sheets don’t tell the whole story — and why Christian Norgaard could help | OneFootball

Five games is far too small a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but Evertonians can have few complaints about the club’s start to the Premier League campaign.

David Moyes’s side remain unbeaten after five league games, while wins over Preston and Wolves have also taken Everton into the fourth round of the Carabao Cup.

Five clean sheets in seven games is an excellent return. But the numbers underneath them are worth keeping an eye on.

The Toffees may have conceded only three Premier League goals, but they are still allowing opponents to shoot with considerable regularity.

Only nine Premier League teams have conceded more shots than Everton so far this season. That is not necessarily a problem in itself — the quality of those opportunities matters considerably more — but it does raise the question of whether the impressive clean-sheet record tells the full story.

Everton’s expected goals against figure of 8.61 ranks as seventh-highest in the Premier League. The Toffees have therefore conceded almost six goals fewer than their expected goals against figure would suggest. For comparison, Ipswich have conceded 10 goals from a remarkably similar expected goals against figure of 8.92.

Expected goals is, of course, a contentious and caveated metric. It is a model rather than a measurement, with different providers using different methodologies to assess the quality of chances. It should therefore be treated as an indication rather than definitive proof of how well or badly a team is performing.

Everton’s overperformance on the metric is a testament to some excellent defending, Jordan Pickford’s performances, and some good fortune. Not all sides are fortunate enough to have one of the league’s best shot-stoppers.

However, it is worth remembering what happened last season.

Everton’s defence was one of the great positives for much of 2025/26. The Toffees kept 11 clean sheets and conceded 50 goals, yet their underlying numbers suggested that the defence was giving up considerably more than those figures indicated. Their xGA eventually finished at 56.5, meaning Everton had conceded around six goals fewer than expected.

Those numbers caught up with them during the disastrous final weeks of the campaign.

History will not necessarily repeat itself, and perhaps the biggest difference is Jarrad Branthwaite’s return. His form has earned him an England recall this month, while it’s clear to see how much James Tarkowski has improved alongside a more complementary partner than Michael Keane.

But there is another curious statistic worth watching.

Everton have gone from being the Premier League’s strongest team in the air last season to 13th this term for aerial duels won. The Toffees averaged 22 successful aerial duels per game in 2025/26; that figure has fallen to 14.8 this season.

It’s a quirk that could have several explanations. Tactical approaches from rival sides are one factor, while Jake O’Brien’s absence from the team is another. The Irishman has spent much of the season on the sidelines, as first Merlin Rohl and then Ainsley Maitland-Niles have taken residence at right-back.

Losing a 6ft 6in presence from both boxes is unlikely to have helped Moyes when it comes to contests in the air.

It is not a statistic that should be overinterpreted after just five league matches, but it is another indication that Everton’s defensive numbers are not quite as straightforward as five clean sheets might suggest.

This is where Christian Norgaard’s return could become particularly interesting.

Everton have lacked a specialist defensive midfielder during the opening weeks of the campaign, and the Dane’s ability to read danger, break up attacks and provide an additional presence in front of the defence could help reduce the number of opportunities reaching Tarkowski, Branthwaite and Pickford.

Norgaard is also strong in the air, potentially addressing another area in which Everton’s numbers have slipped.

None of this should detract from what has been a positive opening to the season.

Three goals conceded from five Premier League games is an excellent record, and Moyes will rightly be pleased with the way his side have remained difficult to break down.

But the international break provides an opportunity to look beyond the headline figures.

For now, the clean sheets are what matter. But if Moyes can improve the numbers behind them, Everton’s defence could become an even greater strength as the season progresses