Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 0 West Ham 2

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The Mag

·26 November 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 0 West Ham 2

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Sunday and Monday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Southampton 1.54 v Liverpool 3.19 (2-3)

Ipswich 1.99 v Man U 1.27 (1-1)

Newcastle 1.50 v West Ham 0.94 (0-2)

As you can see, Liverpool well worth their win, with a far higher (3.19 v 1.54) Expected Goals stat than Southampton, even if they had to come back and win after going 2-1 down.

I watched the Ipswich match and as the Expected Goals stats (1.99 v 1.27) indicate, Man U very lucky to escape with a draw. As Ipswich had more and better chances overall.

Which brings us to St James’ Park and Monday night…

The Expected Goals stats show the very real story of the match as Newcastle took on West Ham.

Fair play to the Hammers as they took their two goals well and defended pretty well most of the time.

However… Newcastle United definitely deserved to get something from the match on balance of play.

It is crazy how some Newcastle fans are going on, as if this was an abysmal performance.

It wasn’t a great performance but it wasn’t terrible. Newcastle created plenty of chances and other good situations, far more than West Ham, they just couldn’t finish and/or get things to fall their way.

Not all stats are worth considering but the Expected Goals ones are, especially when you then alongside them, you use the touches by players inside the opposition box, Newcastle with 40 of those and only 17 for West Ham.

The last 35 minutes West Ham were the better team as Newcastle tried to chase the game bit up to that point, Newcastle had been much the better side, just didn’t take advantage of it.

Newcastle 0 West Ham 2 – Monday 25 November 8pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

West Ham:

Soucek 10, Wan-Bissaka 53

Possession was Newcastle 52% West Ham 48%

Total shots were Newcastle 18 West Ham 15

Shots on target were Newcastle 2 West Ham 6

Corners were Newcastle 8 West Ham 3

Touches in the box Newcastle 40 West Ham 17

Newcastle United team v West Ham

Pope; Livramento, Schar, Kelly, Hall; Longstaff (Tonali 57), Bruno (Trippier 84), Willock (Barnes 46), Gordon (Wilson 68), Isak, Joelinton (Murphy 69)

Unused Subs:

Targett, Dubravka, Almiron, Osula

(Toys out of the pram as usual – Embarrassing – Read HERE)

(We were the dominant team at half-time – Eddie Howe – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 0 West Ham 2 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 0 West Ham 2 – An international break when we were building momentum didn’t help but… Read HERE)

Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:

Saturday 30 November – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (3pm)

Wednesday 4 December – Newcastle v Liverpool (7.30pm) Amazon

Saturday 7 December – Brentford v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 14 December – Newcastle v Leicester (3pm)

Wednesday 18 December – Newcastle v Brentford (7.45pm) Sky Sports+ (Carabao Cup)