FA Cup Tips: Five third round upsets to back this weekend up to 17/2 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Matt Bloomfield has quickly transformed Wycombe

Ste Tudor picks out five potential giant-killings, or at least the slaying of opponents wearing slightly bigger boots...

Cup upsets occur more often than you may think. In the last five years there have been 112 fixtures in the FA Cup third round featuring teams from different divisions. On 30 occasions the underdog has won out.

Granted, for the most part here, we're not talking about postmen and plumbers defeating a side made up of superstars, on a pitch more suitable for scrambling. By and large, it's an in-form League One team taking down a struggling Championship outfit.Still though, recent history tells us that across this much-loved weekend, there is often value in looking past league status.

Wycombe v Portsmouth (Fri, 19:45)

The Chairboys are flying high in League One and were unbeaten in nine at home until Huddersfield did them over on Tuesday evening. They have not lost back-to-back at Adams Park for 14 months.

With impressive young coach Matt Bloomfield racking up a 47.6% win percentage from 107 games at the helm, Wycombe's promotion charge has been accompanied by all manner of stand-out stats.

Only Walsall have scored more second-half goals across the four divisions. They have the second best chance conversion rate (13.6%) in the league. They also happen to have the second best disciplinary record.Up top, Richard Kone has converted every 117 minutes, his partnership with Beryly Lubala one of the most productive outside of the Premier League.

Pompey by stark comparison are winless in eight on the road, failing to score in five of those matches. Only Plymouth and Cardiff have created fewer big chances across 2024/25 in the Championship.

There is every chance these two teams will swap leagues come May. Friday evening could highlight why.

Bristol City v Wolves (Sat, 12:00)

The Robins have hit upon a rich vein of form over the festive period, losing only once in their last seven outings. It's a run that has propelled them back into the play-off reckoning.

Wolves meanwhile initially appeared to be an improved proposition under new boss Vitor Pereira but a comprehensive defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday showed a recurrence of problems that have been the Old Gold's undoing all season.

Clear-cut chances were spurned at one end. An inability to deal with transitions cost them dear at the other.

The hosts beat West Ham at Ashton Gate at the same stage of the competition last year and history could repeat itself here, especially with the Robins upping their shot-count of late. Their 4.6 SOT per 90 since mid-December is a more than respectable return.

The same goes for corners, City averaging 5.8 per 90. Wolves have won the fewest corners in the top-flight.

Leicester v QPR (Sat, 14:00)

It's been a season of two halves for the Hoops, with 0.6 ppg from August to November rocketing up to 2.0 ppg thereafter. Their dramatic turnaround has lifted them from rock bottom to the hinterland of mid-table where they will likely stay.

One of QPR's biggest problems for far too long has been the lack of a consistent finisher but two goals in two from Michael Frey bodes well. With the Swiss forward now recovered from a long-standing calf issue he could be a player to watch at the King Power.

The Foxes don't need a cup game right now, and they certainly don't want to face an in-form Championship side in front of fans who are already starting to turn on Ruud Van Nistelrooy.

All season long they have conceded every 40 minutes. That has become to every 32 minutes in their last five outings, all losses, as they desperately miss Mads Hermansen in goal.

Up front, despite boasting the sixth best chance conversion rate in the top-flight, Leicester are woefully struggling to create. In three of their last five league fixtures they have posted a meagre four attempts on goal per 90.

Leyton Orient v Derby (Sat, 18:00)

The Os are in fantastic shape, accumulating 22 points from 24 since the start of December. At the beginning of their renaissance they resided in the bottom four. Now they're just four points off the play-offs.

It's a remarkable transformation built on a well-drilled back-line, one that has kept clean sheets in eight of their last 10 in League One. To put that in perspective, they have been breached just four times in their last 15 hours of league football.

Averaging 1.1 goals per 90 in the Championship, Derby don't pose too much of a threat to such parsimony but with 12.5 fouls per 90 they should absolutely be backed in the cards market if the game goes against them.

Southampton v Swansea (Sun, 16:30)

Southampton's managerial change has done nothing to arrest their alarming slide towards the Championship. They are enduring one of the worst top-flight campaigns on record.

Winless in 10, the struggling Saints have shipped in five goals in three of their last four home commitments. Under new boss Ivan Juric they have scored just once in six hours of competitive football.

Admittedly, we have seen before that cup football can be a welcome respite for a Premier League side in serious peril. But frankly - save for the odd decent moment from Tyler Dibling - this team looks done and dusted.

The Swans have the players to capitalize, with Matt Grimes knitting things together in the middle and Josh Tymon providing attacking impetus down the left. The Brazilian winger Ronald has six assists to his name.

The visitors have carved out the fifth highest number of big chances in the second tier. Given Southampton's porous nature we can expect more than one to be taken.

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