Hat-tricks, Greggs sausage rolls and the importance of a big finish | OneFootball

Two wins, three draws and three defeats is a worse Newcastle United start to the 25-26 season in the Premier League than we wanted or probably expected.

Despite the loss at the Amex on Saturday, which was no great surprise, we are still averaging more than a point a game; just.

There’s no avoiding the bald fact, however, that nine points is the lowest return after eight matches from any of the four seasons we have started with Eddie Howe in situ.

I’m not calling it a hot seat because, regardless of the goings-on at other clubs, such as Nottingham Forest, if we were to sack him it would be the biggest surprise at St James’ Park since Leon Best scored a hat-trick against West Ham on his Premier League debut for the Mags in early January 2011.

Incidentally, I do have to claim a bit of credit for that 5-0 under the midweek lights. While walking from Haymarket Metro station towards the ground, I was tempted by a poster in the window of a branch of that omnipresent Gosforth-based bakery chain.

The details say as much about food price inflation as they do about my enormous appetite for unhealthy comestibles: four warm jumbo sausage rolls for £1.

Consider it a tribute to the songwriting genius of the late Alan Hull that the challenge was accepted and polished off before I reached the turnstiles. That quartet of savoury porcine-centred snacks were certainly not “slippin’ down slowly”, though one or two might have been “slippin’ down sideways”!

Any football fan worth his salt (not that it was needed that night) will tell you apparently random incidents can have a causal effect on your team’s fortunes. Thus, I felt duty-bound to repeat the awesome foursome trick on my next visit to the Cathedral on the Hill, especially because we had been in poor form when kicking off against the Hammers.

Thank goodness the coincidence proved to be just that; two unconnected but equally memorable events. Further culinary research confirmed beyond doubt that the goalscoring prowess of the lesser-known Best was in no way influenced by my consumption of meaty pastries. Trust me, I tried . . .

The 14 years since that remarkable night seemed to pass in a flash when I boarded the 13.36 at Brighton on Saturday, bound for the Amex, to be greeted by the unmistakable aroma of Greggs. Four United fans were squeezed round a table in carriage five, tucking into the usual fare, though they seemed to be sticking to the sensible rule of one mouth, one pastry. If only they had eaten not wisely but too well, they might have returned to Tyneside with three points . . .

All of which brings me back to this season, last season and the two before that.

Considering King Eddie has guided United to finishes of fourth, seventh and fifth so far, all highly creditable in the circumstances, his team have started each campaign no more than moderately.

In 2022-23, we garnered 11 points from two wins and five draws in the opening eight games, losing only once. That defeat, incidentally, featured the first recorded appearance at Anfield of an infamous Swedish striker. Whatever happened to him . . .

The season ended with four wins and three draws from our final eight games, a haul of 15 points that secured our return to the Champions League for the first time in a generation. In the home straight we stumbled rather than stormed to fourth place but we were good enough to total four points more than Liverpool, with a far superior goal difference.

Wouldn’t it be sweet if history repeated itself.

The 2023-24 Premier League campaign started with that 5-1 defeat of Aston Villa, the first of four wins and a draw in eight games. A decent tally of 13 points from a possible 24 looked promising. What a curse the word “promising” can be, as Cassandra discovered in Greek myth.

Beset by injuries and the long-term suspension of Sandro Tonali, we fell away in mid-season. Six defeats between December 7 and January 13 cost us any chance of a top four finish. Despite those blows, the eight-match run-in featured five wins and a draw for a total of 16 points. A pattern is emerging here.

Last season, free of European commitments, we managed three wins, three draws and two losses in the first eight games. Twelve points is better than mid-table, though not much better. Fair to middling, you might say.

Six consecutive league wins between mid-December and mid-January were far more than middling. They helped to build the momentum that carried us to glory at Wembley on March 16.

The Premier League run-in was not as impressive as in previous seasons: we lost three of the final eight games, won four and drew the other to accrue 13 points. Despite those defeats, United extended their record under Howe of gaining more points on the last lap of the season than on the first.

In 2022-23, four more. In 2023-24, three more. Last season, one more.

Is this the sign of a high-energy team who run out of gas before the job is done? From where I’m looking, it suggests a team with the ability and spirit to recover from an uncertain start. United string together winning runs when the chips are down, as long as sausage rolls are avoided!

Our next two Premier League fixtures, at home against Fulham and away to West Ham, at first glance seem eminently winnable. The bookies have made us odds-on to claim six points. A total of 15 from the first 10 games would do wonders for morale.

Take a closer look, however, and the picture becomes murkier.

Lewis Hall and Tino Livramento are big misses. The same cannot be said with certainty for Yoane Wissa, simply because he is yet to play for us. What is obvious, though, is that Nick Woltemade needs at least one other forward to share the burden.

Consider the schedule. The Fulham match will kick off about 90 hours after the Champions League tie against Benfica ends. There is even less recovery time between the League Cup game against Tottenham and the trip to “the London Stadium”.

As if all that didn’t add to the challenge, we host Bilbao on Guy Fawkes Night, three days after playing West Ham. Four days later, Brentford are the opponents at St James’ Park. Busy, busy, busy.

You might think the November international break will be a welcome interlude for our overworked players but, using the first half at Brighton as a yardstick, such interruptions to the club’s season do more harm than good.

Searching for positives, we were the better team in the second half at the Amex. Jacob Ramsey is fit again, Lewis Miley did well as a substitute and Jacob Murphy looked dynamic.

Whatever happens between now and November 9 will go a long way towards shaping our season. Onward and upwards, lads.