How FIFA’s new World Cup format manufactures dead rubbers | OneFootball

FIFA’s expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams has generated much debate, but there is one change to the competition’s bloated structure that has gone under the radar. 

With 12 groups comprising four teams vying for 32 spots in the knockout round, the eight-best third-placed teams will join the top two sides from each group in the round of 32.

The tiebreaker for teams who are level on points is goal difference from all group matches. If teams are level on goal difference, then goals scored determines who finishes higher, followed by a team’s conduct score. If teams still cannot be separated, the nation with the higher ranking in the FIFA World Rankings will advance.

At the time of writing, for instance, Netherlands and Belgium are tied on one point each in the third-place table, but the Dutch are above them in the standings due to scoring one goal more than the Belgians.

However, a different tiebreaker, introduced at this tournament, determines placement in the individual groups, and it will lead to more dead rubbers in the final week of the group phase.

How FIFA’s new tiebreaker system at the World Cup works

In past editions of the tournament, goal difference was used to determine who should finish higher in the table. But this year FIFA decided that head-to-head record between the relevant teams should be used as the primary tiebreaker.

That means if two teams finish on the same number of points, the team that won their encounter will finish higher in the table. If they drew their matchup and finish level on points, then goal difference is the relevant tiebreaker.

How the new format impacts teams at World Cup 2026

Using head-to-head record as the first tiebreaker is, on the one hand, more meritocratic, as it rewards the team who defeated their direct rival. However, it arguably makes the tournament less fun and interesting in the final week of the group stage.

Two nations, Haiti and Türkiye, have been eliminated from the World Cup after just two matches due to this new format.

Haiti could finish level on points with Scotland if they win their final group game against Morocco, but they are destined to finish bottom of the table because they lost to Scotland in their opening game.

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Türkiye are in the same boat even though are only three points behind Paraguay and Australia. Even if they managed to beat USA by ten goals next week, it wouldn’t matter. With the USA already through to the round of 32 as group winners, that match is a total dead rubber with nothing on the line.

It’s a shame that the American fans who paid exorbitant ticket prices to watch their national team play a World Cup match on home soil won’t get to see a meaningful match. USA versus Türkiye is a glorified friendly, and though I’m sure neither side will go out of their way to lose, there is no incentive for either manager to play their strongest lineups or at the fullest intensity.

Similar outcomes will be played out in the coming days, which will call into question the integrity of the competition when you have teams who are safely through resting their star players against sides chasing qualification to the next round.

UEFA have the same system in place for the European Championships, but with major tournaments adding more and more teams, these competitions should be looking to create a greater number of competitive matches.

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