How Manchester City and Arsenal could face Premier League title play-off match | OneFootball

The 2025/26 Premier League title could yet be decided by a play-off encounter at the very end of the campaign between Manchester City and Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta’s side currently hold a narrow lead at the summit, but Pep Guardiola’s relentless Manchester City squad are breathing down their necks with a crucial game in hand.

The complexity of tie-break rules means that every goal scored and conceded in these final weeks carries immense weight, especially with both teams boasting similar attacking outputs – Manchester City having scored 63 goals this term to Arsenal’s 62.

And as we approach Sunday’s 16:30 BST kick-off at the Etihad Stadium, the possibility of a dead heat come the end of the campaign is no longer just a statistical anomaly.

Should the two teams finish the 38-game season level on points, goal difference, and goals scored, the rulebook moves to the head-to-head record. With the reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium having ended in a dramatic 1-1 draw back in September, the stage is set.

How could Man City and Arsenal face a play-off for the title?

With an extremely tight chase for numerous crucial rankings in the Premier League during the final weeks of the campaign, the top-flight champion and other positions will be decided in order of the following:

As explained by BBC Sport, should Arsenal and Manchester City end equal on all of the above, the Premier League title will be decided by a play-off match. However, that decider can only be reached if Sunday’s match ends 1-1 – the same result as at Emirates Stadium in September.

A 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium would leave the two clubs with the same head-to-head record, as well as away goals scored in the matches against each other.

The report also points out that the other tie-breakers, as things currently stand, are extremely tight, with Arsenal three goals better off on goal difference, while City have scored 63 goals to Mikel Arteta’s side’s 62 goals.

In the extremely rare eventuality that a play-off match be required at the end of the season, the contest would take place at a neutral ground, with the format and timing of the affair to be determined by the Premier League board.

The prospect of a neutral-ground play-off would be a first in Premier League history, potentially taking place at Wembley Stadium just days after the final scheduled matchday.

For Arsenal, the focus remains on regaining their defensive stability after the Bournemouth slip-up, especially with an injury crisis surrounding Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka threatening to derail momentum.

For Manchester City, the mission is simpler in that by winning on Sunday, they could put the title back in their own hands. However, should the tactical battle between Pep Guardiola and his former protégé end in another stalemate, Arsenal’s belief will certainly grow.

With Manchester City still to navigate a tricky trip to Burnley and an FA Cup semi-final against Southampton, the physical and mental demands of these final six weeks will determine if this unprecedented play-off scenario becomes a reality.