How will Middle East conflict affect Qatar & Saudi Arabia’s global sporting ambitions? | OneFootball

Unless your country is involved in a World Cup play-off, this March international break looks particularly bleak for football fans. The only source of entertainment is the drama that will unfold if Italy fail to qualify for a third straight World Cup.

Perhaps the most disappointing thing was the announcement that came from UEFA on the 15th of March. ‘It is announced today that due to the current political situation in the region, the Finalissima between UEFA EURO 2024 winners Spain and CONMEBOL Copa América 2024 champions Argentina cannot be played as hoped in Qatar on 27 March’.

This was meant to be a clash of past and present. The iconic Barça number ten (Leo Messi) versus his heir (Lamine Yamal).

Anticipation had built since Lamine told Catalan radio RAC1 a day before the Euros’ final that ‘I hope Messi wins the Copa America and I win the Euros so I can play against him in the Finalissima’.

UEFA and the Argentine federation were unable to settle on a new venue and Spain has no other free dates in the 2026 calendar.

A clash between Yamal and Messi is unlikely to materialise in the upcoming World Cup due to Spain and Argentina only being able to meet in the final (assuming they both top their respective groups), since they are the two highest-ranked FIFA nations.

The fixture was scheduled to take place at the Lusail stadium, the same venue as the 2022 World Cup final, and was meant to be the centrepiece of the ‘Qatar Football Festival’, a five-day event where top national teams faced off against each other.

The Qatari Minister of Sport had stated in January that the Qatar Football Festival reaffirmed ‘Qatar’s position as a trusted partner in global football’.

But why did a country that did not consider football a professional sport 20 years ago become so eager to host such prestigious football matches?

Τhe strategy of economic diversification

Qatar is a nation of less than 4 million people and is the second-smallest nation in the Middle East.

Their economy is heavily dependent on LNG and crude oil, accounting for over 90% of the country’s exports.

The same can be said about neighbouring Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter with oil making up 74% of its exports.

But oil is a finite resource. In a 2022 ScienceDirect article, it is noted that hundreds of studies speculated that demand for oil would eventually decline after 2030.

Those theories have been baseless thus far; stakeholders in the oil industry would be wise to diversify into new ventures sooner rather than later.

Transitioning away from the fossil fuel industry will allow for sustainable economic growth and will preserve their power as global powerhouses.

For Qatar, that strategy began in 2008 with ‘Qatar National Vision 2030’. The state aims to fulfil the ambitions set out in QNV 2030 through strategic investment in various sectors, including sport.

Becoming a ‘global sporting hub’ has a knock-on effect on other sectors; tourism and hospitality boom, while foreign investment flows in, enhancing the country’s international reputation and soft power.

Everyone remembers how Qatar stepped onto the global stage by winning the bid to host the World Cup in 2010. South Africa spent 3.5 billion dollars to host the World Cup that year. Qatar spent 60 times that to host the 2022 edition.

By contrast, the UAE appears to have successfully diversified away from oil exports.

In 2009, the same year that Sheikh Mansour took control of Man City, more than 85% of their economy was based on oil exports.

Today, that percentage is roughly 30% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. This was partly achieved by focusing on the growth of the tourism industry, which now forms over 11% of the UAE’s GDP.

Hosting mega sporting events like tennis tournaments and F1 races has contributed to that.

Manchester City and Arsenal playing in stadiums named after the UAE’s state-owned airlines, Etihad and Emirates, is another contributing factor.

The latter even serves as the main shirt sponsor of other major clubs such as PSG, Real Madrid, AC Milan and Benfica.

Saudi Arabia notably fell behind its neighbours in this regard. They launched their redevelopment strategy in 2016 and have made substantial gains over that ten-year period.

The annual hosting of F1 races, high-profile boxing fights, WWE matches and the launch of the LIV golf tour in 2023 all form part of their long-term strategy.

They have also invested heavily in their domestic league, with the aim of raising its value to above 2 billion dollars.

But the Saudi regime also needs to address its population demands. A young, booming population of 38 million, of which over 60% is under 30 years old.

Increasing sporting engagement is half the job; the long-term plan is to cultivate a generation of elite athletes.

The means to reach that goal involves hosting annual elite competitions, such as the Spanish Super Cup.

According to The Athletic, Saudi Arabia pays the Spanish federation 51 million euros to host the tournament.

In return, the Saudi sports ministry gets to launch a scholarship programme that sends young Saudi players (Under-18) to Spain to be part of an elite coaching programme and receive elite European football coaching.

Many publications have outlined in detail how those Gulf nations use sport to rehabilitate their international reputation.

A 2024 analysis by Carma of 14,000 media outlets found that coverage focused more on a ‘sports-related narrative’ than on allegations of human rights violations in Saudi Arabia.

One academic study published in the International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics noted that by hosting major sporting events, a country like Qatar builds relations with foreign powers and gains international recognition.

The study hypothesises that if the sovereignty of a minor nation like Qatar ever gets undermined by a stronger power, like their neighbour across the Persian Gulf, Iran, then the world will sympathise more with Qatar and potentially come to their rescue.

That hypothesis is now being actively tested as all three countries have faced hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones being fired from Iran since the start of March, leading to a temporary disruption in the tourism industry.

As the ripples of the Iranian attacks continue to be felt, it remains to be seen whether the Middle East will regain global trust as a travel destination.

The cancellation of the Finalissima along with other sporting events such as the tennis ATP Challenger event in the UAE and the Saudi Grand Prix has jeopardised their aspirations of becoming the world’s biggest sporting hub.

As this conflict unfolds, it is worth keeping an eye on whether FIFA, UEFA and other sporting organisations determine the Gulf region to be too volatile to host their spectacles.